**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and local meteorologists converge on a daily high near 80°F for Chicago on August 29, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with southwest winds of 5–10 mph and only a slight chance of sprinkles.** This setup limits surface heating compared to clearer conditions, keeping temperatures in the lower 80s rather than allowing stronger afternoon rises. The climatological average high for the date is 81.2°F, providing context for why 80–81°F holds the largest market-implied share at 52% while 82–83°F captures 30% amid minor model or observation variance. A warm front arriving overnight will shift the pattern toward upper 80s on August 30 and 90°F+ potential next week, but today’s steering flow and cloud cover suppress that warming. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of NWS guidance and real-time observations, which show limited upside risk above 83°F and only modest downside to the upper 70s if thicker clouds or showers materialize. This produces the observed distribution favoring the 80–81°F bin as the resolution most consistent with current atmospheric conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on August 29?
Highest temperature in Chicago on August 29?
80-81°F 53%
82-83°F 27%
78-79°F 14%
76-77°F 2%
$12,724 Vol.
$12,724 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
75°F or below
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
53%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 53%
82-83°F 27%
78-79°F 14%
76-77°F 2%
$12,724 Vol.
$12,724 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
75°F or below
$1,004 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$1,170 Vol.
2%
78-79°F
$1,569 Vol.
14%
80-81°F
$1,355 Vol.
53%
82-83°F
$3,080 Vol.
27%
84-85°F
$1,801 Vol.
1%
86-87°F
$891 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$955 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$233 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$333 Vol.
<1%
94°F or higher
$333 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and local meteorologists converge on a daily high near 80°F for Chicago on August 29, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with southwest winds of 5–10 mph and only a slight chance of sprinkles.** This setup limits surface heating compared to clearer conditions, keeping temperatures in the lower 80s rather than allowing stronger afternoon rises. The climatological average high for the date is 81.2°F, providing context for why 80–81°F holds the largest market-implied share at 52% while 82–83°F captures 30% amid minor model or observation variance.
A warm front arriving overnight will shift the pattern toward upper 80s on August 30 and 90°F+ potential next week, but today’s steering flow and cloud cover suppress that warming. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of NWS guidance and real-time observations, which show limited upside risk above 83°F and only modest downside to the upper 70s if thicker clouds or showers materialize. This produces the observed distribution favoring the 80–81°F bin as the resolution most consistent with current atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$12,724End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and local meteorologists converge on a daily high near 80°F for Chicago on August 29, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with southwest winds of 5–10 mph and only a slight chance of sprinkles.** This setup limits surface heating compared to clearer conditions, keeping temperatures in the lower 80s rather than allowing stronger afternoon rises. The climatological average high for the date is 81.2°F, providing context for why 80–81°F holds the largest market-implied share at 52% while 82–83°F captures 30% amid minor model or observation variance.
A warm front arriving overnight will shift the pattern toward upper 80s on August 30 and 90°F+ potential next week, but today’s steering flow and cloud cover suppress that warming. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of NWS guidance and real-time observations, which show limited upside risk above 83°F and only modest downside to the upper 70s if thicker clouds or showers materialize. This produces the observed distribution favoring the 80–81°F bin as the resolution most consistent with current atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,724End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and local meteorologists converge on a daily high near 80°F for Chicago on August 29, 2026, under mostly cloudy skies with southwest winds of 5–10 mph and only a slight chance of sprinkles.** This setup limits surface heating compared to clearer conditions, keeping temperatures in the lower 80s rather than allowing stronger afternoon rises. The climatological average high for the date is 81.2°F, providing context for why 80–81°F holds the largest market-implied share at 52% while 82–83°F captures 30% amid minor model or observation variance. A warm front arriving overnight will shift the pattern toward upper 80s on August 30 and 90°F+ potential next week, but today’s steering flow and cloud cover suppress that warming. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of NWS guidance and real-time observations, which show limited upside risk above 83°F and only modest downside to the upper 70s if thicker clouds or showers materialize. This produces the observed distribution favoring the 80–81°F bin as the resolution most consistent with current atmospheric conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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