Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 4 near 15–16°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, moderate southwest winds, and scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling. Official outlooks show daytime highs around 20–21°C transitioning to overnight lows of 15–16°C amid a 50–60% precipitation chance, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Warmer-than-climatological conditions tied to the current synoptic pattern further support these outcomes over cooler historical September baselines, though minor model spread on exact timing of rain could shift the precise low by 1°C. Updated guidance through the evening of September 3 will provide the next key data point for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 4?
14°C 68%
18°C 68%
13°C 67%
17°C 67%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
49%
13°C
67%
14°C
68%
15°C
55%
16°C
46%
17°C
67%
18°C
68%
19°C
67%
20°C
8%
21°C
7%
22°C or higher
49%
14°C 68%
18°C 68%
13°C 67%
17°C 67%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
49%
13°C
$0 Vol.
67%
14°C
$0 Vol.
68%
15°C
$0 Vol.
55%
16°C
$0 Vol.
46%
17°C
$0 Vol.
67%
18°C
$0 Vol.
68%
19°C
$0 Vol.
67%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C
$0 Vol.
7%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 4 near 15–16°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, moderate southwest winds, and scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling. Official outlooks show daytime highs around 20–21°C transitioning to overnight lows of 15–16°C amid a 50–60% precipitation chance, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Warmer-than-climatological conditions tied to the current synoptic pattern further support these outcomes over cooler historical September baselines, though minor model spread on exact timing of rain could shift the precise low by 1°C. Updated guidance through the evening of September 3 will provide the next key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 4 near 15–16°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, moderate southwest winds, and scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling. Official outlooks show daytime highs around 20–21°C transitioning to overnight lows of 15–16°C amid a 50–60% precipitation chance, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Warmer-than-climatological conditions tied to the current synoptic pattern further support these outcomes over cooler historical September baselines, though minor model spread on exact timing of rain could shift the precise low by 1°C. Updated guidance through the evening of September 3 will provide the next key data point for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including ECMWF and GFS points to a minimum temperature in Warsaw on September 4 near 15–16°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, moderate southwest winds, and scattered showers that limit overnight radiative cooling. Official outlooks show daytime highs around 20–21°C transitioning to overnight lows of 15–16°C amid a 50–60% precipitation chance, consistent with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Warmer-than-climatological conditions tied to the current synoptic pattern further support these outcomes over cooler historical September baselines, though minor model spread on exact timing of rain could shift the precise low by 1°C. Updated guidance through the evening of September 3 will provide the next key data point for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions