Current forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a daily maximum of 32–33°C in Beijing on September 3 under mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions. These values align with recent observational trends and place the outcome well above the September 3 climatological average of 28.6°C while remaining below the 1992 record of 33.1°C. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor 32°C at 58.0% and 33°C at 41.5%, reflecting trader consensus on the narrow range supported by official monitoring data and minimal model spread. Resolution will depend on verified station measurements, with limited upside risk from any unexpected afternoon heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 3?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 3?
32°C 77%
33°C 20%
34°C 1.8%
35°C <1%
$31,296 Vol.
$31,296 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
77%
33°C
24%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 77%
33°C 20%
34°C 1.8%
35°C <1%
$31,296 Vol.
$31,296 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
27°C or below
$573 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$808 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,545 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,853 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$5,644 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$4,926 Vol.
77%
33°C
$6,167 Vol.
24%
34°C
$3,502 Vol.
2%
35°C
$2,730 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$267 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$282 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a daily maximum of 32–33°C in Beijing on September 3 under mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions. These values align with recent observational trends and place the outcome well above the September 3 climatological average of 28.6°C while remaining below the 1992 record of 33.1°C. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor 32°C at 58.0% and 33°C at 41.5%, reflecting trader consensus on the narrow range supported by official monitoring data and minimal model spread. Resolution will depend on verified station measurements, with limited upside risk from any unexpected afternoon heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$31,296End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a daily maximum of 32–33°C in Beijing on September 3 under mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions. These values align with recent observational trends and place the outcome well above the September 3 climatological average of 28.6°C while remaining below the 1992 record of 33.1°C. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor 32°C at 58.0% and 33°C at 41.5%, reflecting trader consensus on the narrow range supported by official monitoring data and minimal model spread. Resolution will depend on verified station measurements, with limited upside risk from any unexpected afternoon heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31,296End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a daily maximum of 32–33°C in Beijing on September 3 under mostly clear skies, light southerly winds, and low humidity typical of late-summer high-pressure conditions. These values align with recent observational trends and place the outcome well above the September 3 climatological average of 28.6°C while remaining below the 1992 record of 33.1°C. Market-implied probabilities heavily favor 32°C at 58.0% and 33°C at 41.5%, reflecting trader consensus on the narrow range supported by official monitoring data and minimal model spread. Resolution will depend on verified station measurements, with limited upside risk from any unexpected afternoon heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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