**Trader consensus strongly favors 31°C as Tokyo’s highest temperature on September 3, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations.** Multiple forecasts from agencies and services, including the Japan Meteorological Agency-aligned outlooks and global models, project a daytime high near 31°C (around 87–88°F) amid humid, overcast conditions with scattered thunderstorms and southerly winds. Current readings have already approached or reached the low 30s Celsius, with dew points in the low 20s supporting limited further warming before afternoon cooling from rain and cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for Tokyo, where highs often hover near 30–32°C before seasonal transition. The 95.5% market-implied probability embeds high confidence in this narrow band, as divergent scenarios—such as stronger convective cooling dropping the peak to 30°C or brief clearing allowing 32°C—remain low-probability based on the latest model runs. Updated forecasts or official station data near resolution could still shift the outcome within a narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?
31°C 99%
32°C 2%
34°C <1%
33°C <1%
$51,353 Vol.
$51,353 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
99%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 99%
32°C 2%
34°C <1%
33°C <1%
$51,353 Vol.
$51,353 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
25°C or below
$3,344 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,658 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,913 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,874 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$5,726 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$13,468 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$7,345 Vol.
99%
32°C
$4,384 Vol.
2%
33°C
$4,276 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$3,617 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$2,748 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 31°C as Tokyo’s highest temperature on September 3, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations.** Multiple forecasts from agencies and services, including the Japan Meteorological Agency-aligned outlooks and global models, project a daytime high near 31°C (around 87–88°F) amid humid, overcast conditions with scattered thunderstorms and southerly winds. Current readings have already approached or reached the low 30s Celsius, with dew points in the low 20s supporting limited further warming before afternoon cooling from rain and cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for Tokyo, where highs often hover near 30–32°C before seasonal transition.
The 95.5% market-implied probability embeds high confidence in this narrow band, as divergent scenarios—such as stronger convective cooling dropping the peak to 30°C or brief clearing allowing 32°C—remain low-probability based on the latest model runs. Updated forecasts or official station data near resolution could still shift the outcome within a narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$51,353End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors 31°C as Tokyo’s highest temperature on September 3, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations.** Multiple forecasts from agencies and services, including the Japan Meteorological Agency-aligned outlooks and global models, project a daytime high near 31°C (around 87–88°F) amid humid, overcast conditions with scattered thunderstorms and southerly winds. Current readings have already approached or reached the low 30s Celsius, with dew points in the low 20s supporting limited further warming before afternoon cooling from rain and cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for Tokyo, where highs often hover near 30–32°C before seasonal transition.
The 95.5% market-implied probability embeds high confidence in this narrow band, as divergent scenarios—such as stronger convective cooling dropping the peak to 30°C or brief clearing allowing 32°C—remain low-probability based on the latest model runs. Updated forecasts or official station data near resolution could still shift the outcome within a narrow range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$51,353End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors 31°C as Tokyo’s highest temperature on September 3, 2026, reflecting model consensus and real-time observations.** Multiple forecasts from agencies and services, including the Japan Meteorological Agency-aligned outlooks and global models, project a daytime high near 31°C (around 87–88°F) amid humid, overcast conditions with scattered thunderstorms and southerly winds. Current readings have already approached or reached the low 30s Celsius, with dew points in the low 20s supporting limited further warming before afternoon cooling from rain and cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-September climatology for Tokyo, where highs often hover near 30–32°C before seasonal transition. The 95.5% market-implied probability embeds high confidence in this narrow band, as divergent scenarios—such as stronger convective cooling dropping the peak to 30°C or brief clearing allowing 32°C—remain low-probability based on the latest model runs. Updated forecasts or official station data near resolution could still shift the outcome within a narrow range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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