**Trader consensus favoring a 29°C peak on September 3 reflects the moderating effects of northwest monsoon flow strengthened by Tropical Cyclone Sadul’s proximity to the Guangdong coast.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects a maximum of 31°C under partly sunny skies with one or two showers later, yet persistent cloud cover from the cyclone’s outer rainbands and fresh northwest winds (force 4–5, occasionally stronger offshore) limit solar heating and promote boundary-layer mixing. Afternoon observations through early afternoon reached the upper 20s°C across urban stations, consistent with historical early-September maxima near 30.8°C but tempered by reduced insolation and elevated humidity. Model consensus and real-time surface data show little support for breaching 30°C today, aligning with the market’s strong preference for 29°C (61.5%) over 30°C (33.5%). Updated HKO briefings and additional model runs this evening will refine the final daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 3?
29°C 82%
30°C 16%
31°C 2%
32°C <1%
$95,946 Vol.
$95,946 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
82%
30°C
16%
31°C
2%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
29°C 82%
30°C 16%
31°C 2%
32°C <1%
$95,946 Vol.
$95,946 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
23°C or below
$435 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$288 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$560 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,454 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,054 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$10,493 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$24,469 Vol.
82%
30°C
$13,605 Vol.
16%
31°C
$16,090 Vol.
2%
32°C
$13,404 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$13,094 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus favoring a 29°C peak on September 3 reflects the moderating effects of northwest monsoon flow strengthened by Tropical Cyclone Sadul’s proximity to the Guangdong coast.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects a maximum of 31°C under partly sunny skies with one or two showers later, yet persistent cloud cover from the cyclone’s outer rainbands and fresh northwest winds (force 4–5, occasionally stronger offshore) limit solar heating and promote boundary-layer mixing. Afternoon observations through early afternoon reached the upper 20s°C across urban stations, consistent with historical early-September maxima near 30.8°C but tempered by reduced insolation and elevated humidity. Model consensus and real-time surface data show little support for breaching 30°C today, aligning with the market’s strong preference for 29°C (61.5%) over 30°C (33.5%). Updated HKO briefings and additional model runs this evening will refine the final daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$95,946End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Trader consensus favoring a 29°C peak on September 3 reflects the moderating effects of northwest monsoon flow strengthened by Tropical Cyclone Sadul’s proximity to the Guangdong coast.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects a maximum of 31°C under partly sunny skies with one or two showers later, yet persistent cloud cover from the cyclone’s outer rainbands and fresh northwest winds (force 4–5, occasionally stronger offshore) limit solar heating and promote boundary-layer mixing. Afternoon observations through early afternoon reached the upper 20s°C across urban stations, consistent with historical early-September maxima near 30.8°C but tempered by reduced insolation and elevated humidity. Model consensus and real-time surface data show little support for breaching 30°C today, aligning with the market’s strong preference for 29°C (61.5%) over 30°C (33.5%). Updated HKO briefings and additional model runs this evening will refine the final daily maximum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve once data for this date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$95,946End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus favoring a 29°C peak on September 3 reflects the moderating effects of northwest monsoon flow strengthened by Tropical Cyclone Sadul’s proximity to the Guangdong coast.** Official Hong Kong Observatory guidance projects a maximum of 31°C under partly sunny skies with one or two showers later, yet persistent cloud cover from the cyclone’s outer rainbands and fresh northwest winds (force 4–5, occasionally stronger offshore) limit solar heating and promote boundary-layer mixing. Afternoon observations through early afternoon reached the upper 20s°C across urban stations, consistent with historical early-September maxima near 30.8°C but tempered by reduced insolation and elevated humidity. Model consensus and real-time surface data show little support for breaching 30°C today, aligning with the market’s strong preference for 29°C (61.5%) over 30°C (33.5%). Updated HKO briefings and additional model runs this evening will refine the final daily maximum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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