Persistent southwest monsoon enhancement from recent tropical activity, including Tropical Storm Pilandok, sustains widespread cloud cover and frequent thunderstorms over Manila through September 5. These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima near 28–30°C according to PAGASA-aligned and international model consensus. Historical September baselines average around 31°C, but current steering patterns and high humidity favor the tightly clustered 29–31°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Updated model runs and PAGASA bulletins on monsoon strength will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 5?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 5?
30°C 21%
29°C 20%
31°C 18%
28°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
23°C or below
2%
24°C
3%
25°C
2%
26°C
8%
27°C
9%
28°C
14%
29°C
20%
30°C
21%
31°C
18%
32°C
10%
33°C or higher
9%
30°C 21%
29°C 20%
31°C 18%
28°C 14%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
3%
25°C
$149 Vol.
2%
26°C
$55 Vol.
8%
27°C
$0 Vol.
9%
28°C
$0 Vol.
14%
29°C
$0 Vol.
20%
30°C
$0 Vol.
21%
31°C
$0 Vol.
18%
32°C
$11 Vol.
10%
33°C or higher
$12 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon enhancement from recent tropical activity, including Tropical Storm Pilandok, sustains widespread cloud cover and frequent thunderstorms over Manila through September 5. These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima near 28–30°C according to PAGASA-aligned and international model consensus. Historical September baselines average around 31°C, but current steering patterns and high humidity favor the tightly clustered 29–31°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Updated model runs and PAGASA bulletins on monsoon strength will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$227End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon enhancement from recent tropical activity, including Tropical Storm Pilandok, sustains widespread cloud cover and frequent thunderstorms over Manila through September 5. These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima near 28–30°C according to PAGASA-aligned and international model consensus. Historical September baselines average around 31°C, but current steering patterns and high humidity favor the tightly clustered 29–31°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Updated model runs and PAGASA bulletins on monsoon strength will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$227End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon enhancement from recent tropical activity, including Tropical Storm Pilandok, sustains widespread cloud cover and frequent thunderstorms over Manila through September 5. These conditions limit solar insolation and promote evaporative cooling, capping daytime maxima near 28–30°C according to PAGASA-aligned and international model consensus. Historical September baselines average around 31°C, but current steering patterns and high humidity favor the tightly clustered 29–31°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Updated model runs and PAGASA bulletins on monsoon strength will provide the next key data points for refining probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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