Recent forecast guidance from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicates a sunny to mostly cloudy day in Chengdu with highs likely peaking near 32–33°C under subtropical high pressure influence, though some runs show afternoon maxima closer to 29–30°C amid variable humidity and light northeast winds. This positions 28–30°C as the most probable resolution range for official station readings, driving the concentrated market-implied odds there while higher outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in model spread and exact peak timing. Historical September baselines near 27°C underscore the current warm anomaly, with traders weighting real-time observational updates heavily ahead of final daily verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 3?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 3?
28°C 42.4%
29°C 33.6%
30°C 14.2%
31°C 5%
$31,766 Vol.
$31,766 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
42%
29°C
34%
30°C
14%
31°C
5%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
28°C 42.4%
29°C 33.6%
30°C 14.2%
31°C 5%
$31,766 Vol.
$31,766 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
27°C or below
$584 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$5,598 Vol.
42%
29°C
$2,329 Vol.
34%
30°C
$3,251 Vol.
14%
31°C
$2,885 Vol.
5%
32°C
$3,899 Vol.
2%
33°C
$3,493 Vol.
1%
34°C
$5,633 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,817 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$1,804 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$474 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicates a sunny to mostly cloudy day in Chengdu with highs likely peaking near 32–33°C under subtropical high pressure influence, though some runs show afternoon maxima closer to 29–30°C amid variable humidity and light northeast winds. This positions 28–30°C as the most probable resolution range for official station readings, driving the concentrated market-implied odds there while higher outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in model spread and exact peak timing. Historical September baselines near 27°C underscore the current warm anomaly, with traders weighting real-time observational updates heavily ahead of final daily verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$31,766End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicates a sunny to mostly cloudy day in Chengdu with highs likely peaking near 32–33°C under subtropical high pressure influence, though some runs show afternoon maxima closer to 29–30°C amid variable humidity and light northeast winds. This positions 28–30°C as the most probable resolution range for official station readings, driving the concentrated market-implied odds there while higher outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in model spread and exact peak timing. Historical September baselines near 27°C underscore the current warm anomaly, with traders weighting real-time observational updates heavily ahead of final daily verification.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$31,766End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from Chinese meteorological sources and international models indicates a sunny to mostly cloudy day in Chengdu with highs likely peaking near 32–33°C under subtropical high pressure influence, though some runs show afternoon maxima closer to 29–30°C amid variable humidity and light northeast winds. This positions 28–30°C as the most probable resolution range for official station readings, driving the concentrated market-implied odds there while higher outcomes reflect residual uncertainty in model spread and exact peak timing. Historical September baselines near 27°C underscore the current warm anomaly, with traders weighting real-time observational updates heavily ahead of final daily verification.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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