Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a daily high near 30–31°C in Shenzhen on September 5 amid scattered thunderstorms and increasing cloud cover that may limit afternoon heating. Coastal sea-breeze circulation and residual tropical moisture from the East Asian monsoon are expected to enhance convective development, keeping surface temperatures from climbing higher while also preventing sharp cooling. This setup aligns with climatological September maxima around 31°C yet reflects current model consensus on modest suppression from precipitation and reduced insolation. Traders appear to weigh the balance between these factors, with 30°C and 31°C outcomes commanding the largest shares of market-implied probability as resolution nears and updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration becomes available.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 5?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 5?
31°C 33%
30°C 27%
29°C 14%
32°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
23°C or below
4%
24°C
4%
25°C
4%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
12%
29°C
14%
30°C
27%
31°C
33%
32°C
13%
33°C or higher
10%
31°C 33%
30°C 27%
29°C 14%
32°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
23°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
24°C
$0 Vol.
4%
25°C
$0 Vol.
4%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$4 Vol.
4%
28°C
$22 Vol.
12%
29°C
$24 Vol.
14%
30°C
$0 Vol.
27%
31°C
$18 Vol.
33%
32°C
$0 Vol.
13%
33°C or higher
$11 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a daily high near 30–31°C in Shenzhen on September 5 amid scattered thunderstorms and increasing cloud cover that may limit afternoon heating. Coastal sea-breeze circulation and residual tropical moisture from the East Asian monsoon are expected to enhance convective development, keeping surface temperatures from climbing higher while also preventing sharp cooling. This setup aligns with climatological September maxima around 31°C yet reflects current model consensus on modest suppression from precipitation and reduced insolation. Traders appear to weigh the balance between these factors, with 30°C and 31°C outcomes commanding the largest shares of market-implied probability as resolution nears and updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration becomes available.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$78End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a daily high near 30–31°C in Shenzhen on September 5 amid scattered thunderstorms and increasing cloud cover that may limit afternoon heating. Coastal sea-breeze circulation and residual tropical moisture from the East Asian monsoon are expected to enhance convective development, keeping surface temperatures from climbing higher while also preventing sharp cooling. This setup aligns with climatological September maxima around 31°C yet reflects current model consensus on modest suppression from precipitation and reduced insolation. Traders appear to weigh the balance between these factors, with 30°C and 31°C outcomes commanding the largest shares of market-implied probability as resolution nears and updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration becomes available.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$78End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a daily high near 30–31°C in Shenzhen on September 5 amid scattered thunderstorms and increasing cloud cover that may limit afternoon heating. Coastal sea-breeze circulation and residual tropical moisture from the East Asian monsoon are expected to enhance convective development, keeping surface temperatures from climbing higher while also preventing sharp cooling. This setup aligns with climatological September maxima around 31°C yet reflects current model consensus on modest suppression from precipitation and reduced insolation. Traders appear to weigh the balance between these factors, with 30°C and 31°C outcomes commanding the largest shares of market-implied probability as resolution nears and updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration becomes available.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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