Forecast models from sources including GFS indicate a daily minimum near 13–14°C for Warsaw on September 5, driven by moderate westerly winds, scattered showers, and persistent cloud cover that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent pattern shifts, including a frontal passage and increased humidity, have kept overnight lows from dropping sharply despite the approaching weekend. This places the expected minimum close to early-September climatological norms of roughly 11°C while introducing uncertainty from model spread in precipitation timing and wind strength. Trader-implied odds remain nearly even between sub-12°C and 22°C+ outcomes because small changes in cloud breaks or wind could shift the realized low by several degrees before resolution. Updated runs from agencies such as the Polish Institute of Meteorology will provide the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 5?
22°C or higher 96%
12°C or below 51%
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
12°C or below
51%
13°C
26%
14°C
26%
15°C
49%
16°C
49%
17°C
2%
18°C
49%
19°C
49%
20°C
49%
21°C
49%
22°C or higher
96%
22°C or higher 96%
12°C or below 51%
15°C 49%
16°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
51%
13°C
$0 Vol.
26%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
49%
16°C
$0 Vol.
49%
17°C
$0 Vol.
2%
18°C
$0 Vol.
49%
19°C
$0 Vol.
49%
20°C
$0 Vol.
49%
21°C
$0 Vol.
49%
22°C or higher
$0 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including GFS indicate a daily minimum near 13–14°C for Warsaw on September 5, driven by moderate westerly winds, scattered showers, and persistent cloud cover that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent pattern shifts, including a frontal passage and increased humidity, have kept overnight lows from dropping sharply despite the approaching weekend. This places the expected minimum close to early-September climatological norms of roughly 11°C while introducing uncertainty from model spread in precipitation timing and wind strength. Trader-implied odds remain nearly even between sub-12°C and 22°C+ outcomes because small changes in cloud breaks or wind could shift the realized low by several degrees before resolution. Updated runs from agencies such as the Polish Institute of Meteorology will provide the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including GFS indicate a daily minimum near 13–14°C for Warsaw on September 5, driven by moderate westerly winds, scattered showers, and persistent cloud cover that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent pattern shifts, including a frontal passage and increased humidity, have kept overnight lows from dropping sharply despite the approaching weekend. This places the expected minimum close to early-September climatological norms of roughly 11°C while introducing uncertainty from model spread in precipitation timing and wind strength. Trader-implied odds remain nearly even between sub-12°C and 22°C+ outcomes because small changes in cloud breaks or wind could shift the realized low by several degrees before resolution. Updated runs from agencies such as the Polish Institute of Meteorology will provide the next key data points.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including GFS indicate a daily minimum near 13–14°C for Warsaw on September 5, driven by moderate westerly winds, scattered showers, and persistent cloud cover that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. Recent pattern shifts, including a frontal passage and increased humidity, have kept overnight lows from dropping sharply despite the approaching weekend. This places the expected minimum close to early-September climatological norms of roughly 11°C while introducing uncertainty from model spread in precipitation timing and wind strength. Trader-implied odds remain nearly even between sub-12°C and 22°C+ outcomes because small changes in cloud breaks or wind could shift the realized low by several degrees before resolution. Updated runs from agencies such as the Polish Institute of Meteorology will provide the next key data points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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