Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high of 21–22°C in Warsaw on September 4, 2026, driven by an incoming frontal system that will bring widespread cloud cover, scattered showers or rain totaling several millimeters, and southwest winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions reduce solar insolation and enhance mixing, limiting surface heating compared with the clearer, warmer conditions observed on September 3. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the daily maximum, with the precise timing of heaviest precipitation and cloud breaks determining whether the peak reaches 23°C or stays near 20°C. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places average highs near 18–20°C, providing context for the current elevated but still moderated outlook. Updated model runs and official briefings from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 4?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 4?
22°C 35%
21°C 29%
23°C 16%
20°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
2%
19°C
4%
20°C
16%
21°C
29%
22°C
35%
23°C
16%
24°C
5%
25°C
2%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C or higher
<1%
22°C 35%
21°C 29%
23°C 16%
20°C 16%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
18°C or below
$180 Vol.
2%
19°C
$98 Vol.
4%
20°C
$714 Vol.
16%
21°C
$541 Vol.
29%
22°C
$584 Vol.
35%
23°C
$875 Vol.
16%
24°C
$509 Vol.
5%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$213 Vol.
1%
27°C
$205 Vol.
1%
28°C or higher
$23 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high of 21–22°C in Warsaw on September 4, 2026, driven by an incoming frontal system that will bring widespread cloud cover, scattered showers or rain totaling several millimeters, and southwest winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions reduce solar insolation and enhance mixing, limiting surface heating compared with the clearer, warmer conditions observed on September 3. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the daily maximum, with the precise timing of heaviest precipitation and cloud breaks determining whether the peak reaches 23°C or stays near 20°C. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places average highs near 18–20°C, providing context for the current elevated but still moderated outlook. Updated model runs and official briefings from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,941End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high of 21–22°C in Warsaw on September 4, 2026, driven by an incoming frontal system that will bring widespread cloud cover, scattered showers or rain totaling several millimeters, and southwest winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions reduce solar insolation and enhance mixing, limiting surface heating compared with the clearer, warmer conditions observed on September 3. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the daily maximum, with the precise timing of heaviest precipitation and cloud breaks determining whether the peak reaches 23°C or stays near 20°C. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places average highs near 18–20°C, providing context for the current elevated but still moderated outlook. Updated model runs and official briefings from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,941End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a high of 21–22°C in Warsaw on September 4, 2026, driven by an incoming frontal system that will bring widespread cloud cover, scattered showers or rain totaling several millimeters, and southwest winds of 15–25 km/h. These conditions reduce solar insolation and enhance mixing, limiting surface heating compared with the clearer, warmer conditions observed on September 3. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread around the daily maximum, with the precise timing of heaviest precipitation and cloud breaks determining whether the peak reaches 23°C or stays near 20°C. Historical September climatology for Warsaw places average highs near 18–20°C, providing context for the current elevated but still moderated outlook. Updated model runs and official briefings from the Polish Institute of Meteorology will refine these details ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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