Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate overnight lows in Tokyo on August 17 will likely settle near 23–24°C, driven by persistent summer humidity, urban heat retention, and variable cloud cover or scattered showers that moderate radiative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with above-normal seasonal temperatures providing a warm baseline while localized factors like wind patterns and precipitation timing create the narrow differentiation between 23°C and 24°C outcomes. Historical August climatology places average minima near 24°C, aligning with current model consensus and supporting the tight market-implied odds between the two leading results. Updated short-range runs and any shifts in steering flow over the next 48 hours represent the key variables that could refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 17?
23°C 42%
24°C 30%
22°C 8%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
3%
21°C
5%
22°C
8%
23°C
42%
24°C
39%
25°C
20%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
23°C 42%
24°C 30%
22°C 8%
21°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
19°C or below
$74 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$15 Vol.
3%
21°C
$118 Vol.
5%
22°C
$155 Vol.
8%
23°C
$225 Vol.
42%
24°C
$204 Vol.
39%
25°C
$654 Vol.
20%
26°C
$133 Vol.
2%
27°C
$15 Vol.
2%
28°C
$74 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$84 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate overnight lows in Tokyo on August 17 will likely settle near 23–24°C, driven by persistent summer humidity, urban heat retention, and variable cloud cover or scattered showers that moderate radiative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with above-normal seasonal temperatures providing a warm baseline while localized factors like wind patterns and precipitation timing create the narrow differentiation between 23°C and 24°C outcomes. Historical August climatology places average minima near 24°C, aligning with current model consensus and supporting the tight market-implied odds between the two leading results. Updated short-range runs and any shifts in steering flow over the next 48 hours represent the key variables that could refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,753End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate overnight lows in Tokyo on August 17 will likely settle near 23–24°C, driven by persistent summer humidity, urban heat retention, and variable cloud cover or scattered showers that moderate radiative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with above-normal seasonal temperatures providing a warm baseline while localized factors like wind patterns and precipitation timing create the narrow differentiation between 23°C and 24°C outcomes. Historical August climatology places average minima near 24°C, aligning with current model consensus and supporting the tight market-implied odds between the two leading results. Updated short-range runs and any shifts in steering flow over the next 48 hours represent the key variables that could refine these probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,753End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models indicate overnight lows in Tokyo on August 17 will likely settle near 23–24°C, driven by persistent summer humidity, urban heat retention, and variable cloud cover or scattered showers that moderate radiative cooling. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values, with above-normal seasonal temperatures providing a warm baseline while localized factors like wind patterns and precipitation timing create the narrow differentiation between 23°C and 24°C outcomes. Historical August climatology places average minima near 24°C, aligning with current model consensus and supporting the tight market-implied odds between the two leading results. Updated short-range runs and any shifts in steering flow over the next 48 hours represent the key variables that could refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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