Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model consensus points to a Tokyo high near 30°C on August 16 amid strengthening Pacific high pressure that advects warm, humid air from the south. Above-normal seasonal temperatures and Tokyo’s urban heat island effect support the slight edge for 30°C over 29°C in trader-implied odds, while scattered showers or increased cloud cover in some runs could cap the peak at the lower value. Short-term forecast uncertainty around precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the close 38.5–32.5% split between these outcomes, with higher thresholds remaining low-probability absent stronger subsidence. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected within 48 hours will likely refine the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
30°C 40%
29°C 33%
31°C 12%
28°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
3%
28°C
8%
29°C
33%
30°C
40%
31°C
12%
32°C
4%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 40%
29°C 33%
31°C 12%
28°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
$247 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$57 Vol.
1%
27°C
$529 Vol.
3%
28°C
$149 Vol.
8%
29°C
$1,055 Vol.
33%
30°C
$1,967 Vol.
40%
31°C
$163 Vol.
12%
32°C
$85 Vol.
4%
33°C
$98 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$61 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model consensus points to a Tokyo high near 30°C on August 16 amid strengthening Pacific high pressure that advects warm, humid air from the south. Above-normal seasonal temperatures and Tokyo’s urban heat island effect support the slight edge for 30°C over 29°C in trader-implied odds, while scattered showers or increased cloud cover in some runs could cap the peak at the lower value. Short-term forecast uncertainty around precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the close 38.5–32.5% split between these outcomes, with higher thresholds remaining low-probability absent stronger subsidence. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected within 48 hours will likely refine the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$4,531End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model consensus points to a Tokyo high near 30°C on August 16 amid strengthening Pacific high pressure that advects warm, humid air from the south. Above-normal seasonal temperatures and Tokyo’s urban heat island effect support the slight edge for 30°C over 29°C in trader-implied odds, while scattered showers or increased cloud cover in some runs could cap the peak at the lower value. Short-term forecast uncertainty around precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the close 38.5–32.5% split between these outcomes, with higher thresholds remaining low-probability absent stronger subsidence. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected within 48 hours will likely refine the range ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,531End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency model consensus points to a Tokyo high near 30°C on August 16 amid strengthening Pacific high pressure that advects warm, humid air from the south. Above-normal seasonal temperatures and Tokyo’s urban heat island effect support the slight edge for 30°C over 29°C in trader-implied odds, while scattered showers or increased cloud cover in some runs could cap the peak at the lower value. Short-term forecast uncertainty around precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing creates the close 38.5–32.5% split between these outcomes, with higher thresholds remaining low-probability absent stronger subsidence. Updated JMA guidance and ensemble runs expected within 48 hours will likely refine the range ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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