Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a minimum temperature near 23–24°C for Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 49.5% and 29.5% implied probability. Mid-August climatology features persistent subtropical high pressure that traps humid maritime air, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling while urban heat island effects and light winds further moderate overnight lows around the seasonal normal of 23.5°C. No major typhoon or frontal systems are expected to alter the pattern in the next 24–48 hours, keeping temperatures stable within the narrow 22–25°C band that accounts for over 90% of market volume. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine exact values ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
24°C 49%
23°C 28%
22°C 23%
25°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
3%
22°C
23%
23°C
28%
24°C
49%
25°C
3%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 49%
23°C 28%
22°C 23%
25°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
18°C or below
$274 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$219 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$160 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$209 Vol.
3%
22°C
$703 Vol.
23%
23°C
$2,478 Vol.
28%
24°C
$1,556 Vol.
49%
25°C
$340 Vol.
3%
26°C
$109 Vol.
1%
27°C
$203 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$246 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a minimum temperature near 23–24°C for Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 49.5% and 29.5% implied probability. Mid-August climatology features persistent subtropical high pressure that traps humid maritime air, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling while urban heat island effects and light winds further moderate overnight lows around the seasonal normal of 23.5°C. No major typhoon or frontal systems are expected to alter the pattern in the next 24–48 hours, keeping temperatures stable within the narrow 22–25°C band that accounts for over 90% of market volume. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine exact values ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$6,495End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a minimum temperature near 23–24°C for Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 49.5% and 29.5% implied probability. Mid-August climatology features persistent subtropical high pressure that traps humid maritime air, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling while urban heat island effects and light winds further moderate overnight lows around the seasonal normal of 23.5°C. No major typhoon or frontal systems are expected to alter the pattern in the next 24–48 hours, keeping temperatures stable within the narrow 22–25°C band that accounts for over 90% of market volume. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine exact values ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,495End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency indicate a minimum temperature near 23–24°C for Tokyo on August 16, aligning with the market's leading outcomes at 49.5% and 29.5% implied probability. Mid-August climatology features persistent subtropical high pressure that traps humid maritime air, limiting nocturnal radiative cooling while urban heat island effects and light winds further moderate overnight lows around the seasonal normal of 23.5°C. No major typhoon or frontal systems are expected to alter the pattern in the next 24–48 hours, keeping temperatures stable within the narrow 22–25°C band that accounts for over 90% of market volume. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine exact values ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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