Current forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and timeanddate project Chengdu’s August 15 maximum near 36–37°C under humid subtropical conditions typical of the Sichuan basin in mid-August, when seasonal heating and moisture convergence often produce these peaks. Recent model runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer humidity and potential late-day convection that could cap temperatures slightly below or allow brief spikes above these thresholds. Historical August averages hover around 32–34°C, but 2026 conditions align with warmer recent summers featuring more frequent days above 35°C. Trader sentiment clusters on 36°C and 37°C because ensembles indicate the highest probability density in that narrow range, with lower odds on 35°C or 38°C reflecting forecast uncertainty and typical diurnal variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 15?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 15?
36°C 40%
37°C 28%
35°C 20%
34°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
2%
33°C
3%
34°C
9%
35°C
20%
36°C
40%
37°C
28%
38°C
7%
39°C or higher
2%
36°C 40%
37°C 28%
35°C 20%
34°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
$1,547 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$774 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,517 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$484 Vol.
2%
33°C
$278 Vol.
3%
34°C
$727 Vol.
9%
35°C
$501 Vol.
20%
36°C
$984 Vol.
40%
37°C
$732 Vol.
28%
38°C
$930 Vol.
7%
39°C or higher
$685 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and timeanddate project Chengdu’s August 15 maximum near 36–37°C under humid subtropical conditions typical of the Sichuan basin in mid-August, when seasonal heating and moisture convergence often produce these peaks. Recent model runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer humidity and potential late-day convection that could cap temperatures slightly below or allow brief spikes above these thresholds. Historical August averages hover around 32–34°C, but 2026 conditions align with warmer recent summers featuring more frequent days above 35°C. Trader sentiment clusters on 36°C and 37°C because ensembles indicate the highest probability density in that narrow range, with lower odds on 35°C or 38°C reflecting forecast uncertainty and typical diurnal variability.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,161End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and timeanddate project Chengdu’s August 15 maximum near 36–37°C under humid subtropical conditions typical of the Sichuan basin in mid-August, when seasonal heating and moisture convergence often produce these peaks. Recent model runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer humidity and potential late-day convection that could cap temperatures slightly below or allow brief spikes above these thresholds. Historical August averages hover around 32–34°C, but 2026 conditions align with warmer recent summers featuring more frequent days above 35°C. Trader sentiment clusters on 36°C and 37°C because ensembles indicate the highest probability density in that narrow range, with lower odds on 35°C or 38°C reflecting forecast uncertainty and typical diurnal variability.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,161End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including AccuWeather and timeanddate project Chengdu’s August 15 maximum near 36–37°C under humid subtropical conditions typical of the Sichuan basin in mid-August, when seasonal heating and moisture convergence often produce these peaks. Recent model runs show modest spread driven by boundary-layer humidity and potential late-day convection that could cap temperatures slightly below or allow brief spikes above these thresholds. Historical August averages hover around 32–34°C, but 2026 conditions align with warmer recent summers featuring more frequent days above 35°C. Trader sentiment clusters on 36°C and 37°C because ensembles indicate the highest probability density in that narrow range, with lower odds on 35°C or 38°C reflecting forecast uncertainty and typical diurnal variability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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