**Latest meteorological forecasts position Shanghai’s minimum temperature on September 4, 2026, near 25–27 °C.** Persistent northeasterly flow, extensive low-level cloud cover, and elevated dew points near 24 °C are suppressing radiative cooling overnight, keeping early-morning readings elevated relative to climatological norms for early September. Multiple model runs and station guidance converge on a narrow range, with the highest probabilities assigned to 26–27 °C. Trader-implied odds reflect this consensus, heavily favoring 27 °C while assigning lower weight to cooler outcomes that would require unexpected clearing or stronger advection of cooler air. Resolution will occur once official Shanghai observatory data confirm the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 4?
27°C 65%
26°C 27%
25°C 6%
28°C 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
4%
25°C
6%
26°C
27%
27°C
65%
28°C
5%
29°C
2%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 65%
26°C 27%
25°C 6%
28°C 4.7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
$196 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$177 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$137 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$252 Vol.
4%
25°C
$343 Vol.
6%
26°C
$542 Vol.
27%
27°C
$1,478 Vol.
65%
28°C
$170 Vol.
5%
29°C
$109 Vol.
2%
30°C
$175 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$247 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest meteorological forecasts position Shanghai’s minimum temperature on September 4, 2026, near 25–27 °C.** Persistent northeasterly flow, extensive low-level cloud cover, and elevated dew points near 24 °C are suppressing radiative cooling overnight, keeping early-morning readings elevated relative to climatological norms for early September. Multiple model runs and station guidance converge on a narrow range, with the highest probabilities assigned to 26–27 °C. Trader-implied odds reflect this consensus, heavily favoring 27 °C while assigning lower weight to cooler outcomes that would require unexpected clearing or stronger advection of cooler air. Resolution will occur once official Shanghai observatory data confirm the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,824End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest meteorological forecasts position Shanghai’s minimum temperature on September 4, 2026, near 25–27 °C.** Persistent northeasterly flow, extensive low-level cloud cover, and elevated dew points near 24 °C are suppressing radiative cooling overnight, keeping early-morning readings elevated relative to climatological norms for early September. Multiple model runs and station guidance converge on a narrow range, with the highest probabilities assigned to 26–27 °C. Trader-implied odds reflect this consensus, heavily favoring 27 °C while assigning lower weight to cooler outcomes that would require unexpected clearing or stronger advection of cooler air. Resolution will occur once official Shanghai observatory data confirm the daily minimum.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,824End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest meteorological forecasts position Shanghai’s minimum temperature on September 4, 2026, near 25–27 °C.** Persistent northeasterly flow, extensive low-level cloud cover, and elevated dew points near 24 °C are suppressing radiative cooling overnight, keeping early-morning readings elevated relative to climatological norms for early September. Multiple model runs and station guidance converge on a narrow range, with the highest probabilities assigned to 26–27 °C. Trader-implied odds reflect this consensus, heavily favoring 27 °C while assigning lower weight to cooler outcomes that would require unexpected clearing or stronger advection of cooler air. Resolution will occur once official Shanghai observatory data confirm the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions