Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-aligned models, and regional meteorological services indicate a high of 29–31°C for Shanghai on September 4, driven by northeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Trader consensus favoring 31°C (63.5% implied probability) over 30°C (16%) or 32°C (15%) aligns with the upper end of ensemble guidance and slightly warmer-than-climatological conditions observed in late August. Key resolution factors include maximum temperature thresholds measured at official stations, with uncertainty stemming from variable precipitation timing and model spread in boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration are expected to refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 4?
31°C 62%
30°C 22%
32°C 11%
29°C 2%
NEW
$12,480 Vol.
NEW
$12,480 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
22%
31°C
62%
32°C
11%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 62%
30°C 22%
32°C 11%
29°C 2%
NEW
$12,480 Vol.
NEW
$12,480 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
25°C or below
$641 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$281 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$162 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$529 Vol.
1%
29°C
$1,521 Vol.
2%
30°C
$3,540 Vol.
22%
31°C
$2,367 Vol.
62%
32°C
$1,797 Vol.
11%
33°C
$889 Vol.
1%
34°C
$634 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$226 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-aligned models, and regional meteorological services indicate a high of 29–31°C for Shanghai on September 4, driven by northeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Trader consensus favoring 31°C (63.5% implied probability) over 30°C (16%) or 32°C (15%) aligns with the upper end of ensemble guidance and slightly warmer-than-climatological conditions observed in late August. Key resolution factors include maximum temperature thresholds measured at official stations, with uncertainty stemming from variable precipitation timing and model spread in boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration are expected to refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,480End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-aligned models, and regional meteorological services indicate a high of 29–31°C for Shanghai on September 4, driven by northeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Trader consensus favoring 31°C (63.5% implied probability) over 30°C (16%) or 32°C (15%) aligns with the upper end of ensemble guidance and slightly warmer-than-climatological conditions observed in late August. Key resolution factors include maximum temperature thresholds measured at official stations, with uncertainty stemming from variable precipitation timing and model spread in boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration are expected to refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,480End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from sources including the Met Office, NOAA-aligned models, and regional meteorological services indicate a high of 29–31°C for Shanghai on September 4, driven by northeasterly flow, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers that limit daytime heating. Trader consensus favoring 31°C (63.5% implied probability) over 30°C (16%) or 32°C (15%) aligns with the upper end of ensemble guidance and slightly warmer-than-climatological conditions observed in late August. Key resolution factors include maximum temperature thresholds measured at official stations, with uncertainty stemming from variable precipitation timing and model spread in boundary-layer moisture. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration are expected to refine these probabilities ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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