Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 5 will likely settle in the mid-20s Celsius, with consensus pointing to 25–26°C under persistent northeast winds, cloud cover, and light drizzle or showers that limit radiative cooling. These conditions follow a stable early-September pattern of moderating monsoon influences and northerly flow, consistent with climatological baselines near 24–25°C for the date. Model agreement across runs supports the market's leading implied probabilities for 26°C (41.5%) and 25°C (24.0%), while slight divergences in precipitation timing or wind strength could shift outcomes toward 24°C or 27°C. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours may refine these trader-consensus odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 5?
26°C 44%
27°C 43%
25°C 21%
22°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
21°C or below
15%
22°C
20%
23°C
20%
24°C
13%
25°C
21%
26°C
44%
27°C
43%
28°C
10%
29°C
20%
30°C
20%
31°C or higher
15%
26°C 44%
27°C 43%
25°C 21%
22°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
21°C or below
$0 Vol.
15%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
20%
24°C
$0 Vol.
13%
25°C
$23 Vol.
21%
26°C
$246 Vol.
44%
27°C
$0 Vol.
43%
28°C
$0 Vol.
10%
29°C
$0 Vol.
20%
30°C
$0 Vol.
20%
31°C or higher
$0 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 5 will likely settle in the mid-20s Celsius, with consensus pointing to 25–26°C under persistent northeast winds, cloud cover, and light drizzle or showers that limit radiative cooling. These conditions follow a stable early-September pattern of moderating monsoon influences and northerly flow, consistent with climatological baselines near 24–25°C for the date. Model agreement across runs supports the market's leading implied probabilities for 26°C (41.5%) and 25°C (24.0%), while slight divergences in precipitation timing or wind strength could shift outcomes toward 24°C or 27°C. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours may refine these trader-consensus odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$247End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 5 will likely settle in the mid-20s Celsius, with consensus pointing to 25–26°C under persistent northeast winds, cloud cover, and light drizzle or showers that limit radiative cooling. These conditions follow a stable early-September pattern of moderating monsoon influences and northerly flow, consistent with climatological baselines near 24–25°C for the date. Model agreement across runs supports the market's leading implied probabilities for 26°C (41.5%) and 25°C (24.0%), while slight divergences in precipitation timing or wind strength could shift outcomes toward 24°C or 27°C. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours may refine these trader-consensus odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$247End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from meteorological agencies and models indicate Shanghai's overnight low on September 5 will likely settle in the mid-20s Celsius, with consensus pointing to 25–26°C under persistent northeast winds, cloud cover, and light drizzle or showers that limit radiative cooling. These conditions follow a stable early-September pattern of moderating monsoon influences and northerly flow, consistent with climatological baselines near 24–25°C for the date. Model agreement across runs supports the market's leading implied probabilities for 26°C (41.5%) and 25°C (24.0%), while slight divergences in precipitation timing or wind strength could shift outcomes toward 24°C or 27°C. Updated short-range guidance expected within 24 hours may refine these trader-consensus odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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