Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a marine layer around 1,000–1,500 feet deep with moderate onshore westerly flow, supporting an overnight low near the long-term August 29 average of 56 °F at official stations. Trader consensus splits between the 56–57 °F bin and sub-50 °F outcomes because subtle differences in marine-layer depth, wind mixing, and patchy stratus can alter radiational cooling rates by several degrees before dawn. Clearer skies or lighter winds would favor the lower tail, while persistent clouds or stronger flow would anchor temperatures closer to the climatological baseline. Updated model guidance tonight and early-morning observations will resolve the narrow spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 29?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 29?
49°F or below 87%
50-51°F 79%
54-55°F 25%
52-53°F 9%
$1,250 Vol.
$1,250 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
49°F or below
87%
50-51°F
79%
52-53°F
9%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
54%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68°F or higher
<1%
49°F or below 87%
50-51°F 79%
54-55°F 25%
52-53°F 9%
$1,250 Vol.
$1,250 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
49°F or below
$82 Vol.
87%
50-51°F
$50 Vol.
79%
52-53°F
$19 Vol.
9%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
25%
56-57°F
$246 Vol.
54%
58-59°F
$200 Vol.
<1%
60-61°F
$167 Vol.
<1%
62-63°F
$103 Vol.
<1%
64-65°F
$45 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$292 Vol.
<1%
68°F or higher
$45 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a marine layer around 1,000–1,500 feet deep with moderate onshore westerly flow, supporting an overnight low near the long-term August 29 average of 56 °F at official stations. Trader consensus splits between the 56–57 °F bin and sub-50 °F outcomes because subtle differences in marine-layer depth, wind mixing, and patchy stratus can alter radiational cooling rates by several degrees before dawn. Clearer skies or lighter winds would favor the lower tail, while persistent clouds or stronger flow would anchor temperatures closer to the climatological baseline. Updated model guidance tonight and early-morning observations will resolve the narrow spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,250End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a marine layer around 1,000–1,500 feet deep with moderate onshore westerly flow, supporting an overnight low near the long-term August 29 average of 56 °F at official stations. Trader consensus splits between the 56–57 °F bin and sub-50 °F outcomes because subtle differences in marine-layer depth, wind mixing, and patchy stratus can alter radiational cooling rates by several degrees before dawn. Clearer skies or lighter winds would favor the lower tail, while persistent clouds or stronger flow would anchor temperatures closer to the climatological baseline. Updated model guidance tonight and early-morning observations will resolve the narrow spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,250End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs point to a marine layer around 1,000–1,500 feet deep with moderate onshore westerly flow, supporting an overnight low near the long-term August 29 average of 56 °F at official stations. Trader consensus splits between the 56–57 °F bin and sub-50 °F outcomes because subtle differences in marine-layer depth, wind mixing, and patchy stratus can alter radiational cooling rates by several degrees before dawn. Clearer skies or lighter winds would favor the lower tail, while persistent clouds or stronger flow would anchor temperatures closer to the climatological baseline. Updated model guidance tonight and early-morning observations will resolve the narrow spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions