Traders are assigning the highest probabilities to a 64–69°F overnight low in New York City on August 24 because current ensemble guidance shows modest radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with light variable winds. These conditions allow typical late-August boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat island effect to keep temperatures from dropping sharply, while small differences in cloud cover timing or a weak frontal passage can shift the minimum by a degree or two. Model spread between the GFS and ECMWF remains narrow, supporting the clustered 64–69°F range, yet any increase in dew-point depression or stronger northerly flow overnight could push readings into the low 60s. The market reflects this scientific uncertainty ahead of the final National Weather Service verification from Central Park.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 24?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 24?
66-67°F 28%
64-65°F 26%
68-69°F 19%
62-63°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
55°F or below
3%
56-57°F
7%
58-59°F
11%
60-61°F
11%
62-63°F
17%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
28%
68-69°F
34%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
4%
74°F or higher
3%
66-67°F 28%
64-65°F 26%
68-69°F 19%
62-63°F 17%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
55°F or below
$5 Vol.
3%
56-57°F
$10 Vol.
7%
58-59°F
$10 Vol.
11%
60-61°F
$20 Vol.
11%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
17%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
26%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
28%
68-69°F
$26 Vol.
34%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
7%
72-73°F
$9 Vol.
4%
74°F or higher
$10 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are assigning the highest probabilities to a 64–69°F overnight low in New York City on August 24 because current ensemble guidance shows modest radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with light variable winds. These conditions allow typical late-August boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat island effect to keep temperatures from dropping sharply, while small differences in cloud cover timing or a weak frontal passage can shift the minimum by a degree or two. Model spread between the GFS and ECMWF remains narrow, supporting the clustered 64–69°F range, yet any increase in dew-point depression or stronger northerly flow overnight could push readings into the low 60s. The market reflects this scientific uncertainty ahead of the final National Weather Service verification from Central Park.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$89End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders are assigning the highest probabilities to a 64–69°F overnight low in New York City on August 24 because current ensemble guidance shows modest radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with light variable winds. These conditions allow typical late-August boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat island effect to keep temperatures from dropping sharply, while small differences in cloud cover timing or a weak frontal passage can shift the minimum by a degree or two. Model spread between the GFS and ECMWF remains narrow, supporting the clustered 64–69°F range, yet any increase in dew-point depression or stronger northerly flow overnight could push readings into the low 60s. The market reflects this scientific uncertainty ahead of the final National Weather Service verification from Central Park.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$89End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders are assigning the highest probabilities to a 64–69°F overnight low in New York City on August 24 because current ensemble guidance shows modest radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies with light variable winds. These conditions allow typical late-August boundary-layer moisture and the urban heat island effect to keep temperatures from dropping sharply, while small differences in cloud cover timing or a weak frontal passage can shift the minimum by a degree or two. Model spread between the GFS and ECMWF remains narrow, supporting the clustered 64–69°F range, yet any increase in dew-point depression or stronger northerly flow overnight could push readings into the low 60s. The market reflects this scientific uncertainty ahead of the final National Weather Service verification from Central Park.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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