Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 99–100°F in Houston on August 24 amid ongoing late-summer heat, with light southwest winds, abundant sunshine, and dew points in the mid-70s limiting overnight cooling. This pattern aligns with climatological norms for late August, when daily highs typically range from the mid-90s to low 100s absent a strong cold front or tropical moisture surge. The market-implied 55.5% probability on 98–99°F and 32% on 100–101°F reflects trader consensus on these model outputs, tempered by minor uncertainty in sea-breeze timing and any isolated afternoon convection that could shave a degree or two from the peak. Updated NWS briefings and next model runs will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Houston on August 24?
Highest temperature in Houston on August 24?
98-99°F 52%
100-101°F 34%
96-97°F 12%
104-105°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
91°F or below
1%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
12%
98-99°F
52%
100-101°F
26%
102-103°F
3%
104-105°F
5%
106-107°F
2%
108-109°F
3%
110°F or higher
3%
98-99°F 52%
100-101°F 34%
96-97°F 12%
104-105°F 5%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
91°F or below
$84 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$10 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$124 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$160 Vol.
12%
98-99°F
$140 Vol.
52%
100-101°F
$266 Vol.
26%
102-103°F
$139 Vol.
3%
104-105°F
$10 Vol.
5%
106-107°F
$10 Vol.
2%
108-109°F
$5 Vol.
3%
110°F or higher
$5 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 99–100°F in Houston on August 24 amid ongoing late-summer heat, with light southwest winds, abundant sunshine, and dew points in the mid-70s limiting overnight cooling. This pattern aligns with climatological norms for late August, when daily highs typically range from the mid-90s to low 100s absent a strong cold front or tropical moisture surge. The market-implied 55.5% probability on 98–99°F and 32% on 100–101°F reflects trader consensus on these model outputs, tempered by minor uncertainty in sea-breeze timing and any isolated afternoon convection that could shave a degree or two from the peak. Updated NWS briefings and next model runs will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volume
$952End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 99–100°F in Houston on August 24 amid ongoing late-summer heat, with light southwest winds, abundant sunshine, and dew points in the mid-70s limiting overnight cooling. This pattern aligns with climatological norms for late August, when daily highs typically range from the mid-90s to low 100s absent a strong cold front or tropical moisture surge. The market-implied 55.5% probability on 98–99°F and 32% on 100–101°F reflects trader consensus on these model outputs, tempered by minor uncertainty in sea-breeze timing and any isolated afternoon convection that could shave a degree or two from the peak. Updated NWS briefings and next model runs will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$952End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance points to a high near 99–100°F in Houston on August 24 amid ongoing late-summer heat, with light southwest winds, abundant sunshine, and dew points in the mid-70s limiting overnight cooling. This pattern aligns with climatological norms for late August, when daily highs typically range from the mid-90s to low 100s absent a strong cold front or tropical moisture surge. The market-implied 55.5% probability on 98–99°F and 32% on 100–101°F reflects trader consensus on these model outputs, tempered by minor uncertainty in sea-breeze timing and any isolated afternoon convection that could shave a degree or two from the peak. Updated NWS briefings and next model runs will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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