Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs project overnight lows near 69–71°F for New York City on August 22, driven by a stable late-summer air mass with moderate humidity, limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and weak southerly flow. These conditions align with climatological August averages of 66–68°F while suppressing stronger nocturnal drops that would require clear skies and drier air. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability on 70–71°F and substantial support for adjacent 66–69°F bins, incorporates this forecast stability and the narrow uncertainty range typical of 24–48-hour temperature outlooks. Upcoming NWS updates and model runs over the next 12–18 hours will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 22?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 22?
70-71°F 39%
68-69°F 34%
66-67°F 32%
72-73°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
59°F or below
1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
6%
64-65°F
5%
66-67°F
32%
68-69°F
34%
70-71°F
39%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
5%
76-77°F
1%
78°F or higher
1%
70-71°F 39%
68-69°F 34%
66-67°F 32%
72-73°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
59°F or below
$25 Vol.
1%
60-61°F
$5 Vol.
1%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
6%
64-65°F
$25 Vol.
5%
66-67°F
$1 Vol.
32%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
34%
70-71°F
$1 Vol.
39%
72-73°F
$20 Vol.
11%
74-75°F
$30 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$25 Vol.
1%
78°F or higher
$25 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs project overnight lows near 69–71°F for New York City on August 22, driven by a stable late-summer air mass with moderate humidity, limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and weak southerly flow. These conditions align with climatological August averages of 66–68°F while suppressing stronger nocturnal drops that would require clear skies and drier air. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability on 70–71°F and substantial support for adjacent 66–69°F bins, incorporates this forecast stability and the narrow uncertainty range typical of 24–48-hour temperature outlooks. Upcoming NWS updates and model runs over the next 12–18 hours will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$158End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs project overnight lows near 69–71°F for New York City on August 22, driven by a stable late-summer air mass with moderate humidity, limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and weak southerly flow. These conditions align with climatological August averages of 66–68°F while suppressing stronger nocturnal drops that would require clear skies and drier air. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability on 70–71°F and substantial support for adjacent 66–69°F bins, incorporates this forecast stability and the narrow uncertainty range typical of 24–48-hour temperature outlooks. Upcoming NWS updates and model runs over the next 12–18 hours will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$158End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs project overnight lows near 69–71°F for New York City on August 22, driven by a stable late-summer air mass with moderate humidity, limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies, and weak southerly flow. These conditions align with climatological August averages of 66–68°F while suppressing stronger nocturnal drops that would require clear skies and drier air. Trader consensus, reflected in the 43.5% implied probability on 70–71°F and substantial support for adjacent 66–69°F bins, incorporates this forecast stability and the narrow uncertainty range typical of 24–48-hour temperature outlooks. Upcoming NWS updates and model runs over the next 12–18 hours will provide the primary catalysts for any shifts in these probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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