Current forecasts from NWS normals and sources like AccuWeather and World-Weather.info point to a typical late-August low near 64°F in Chicago on August 24, driven by Lake Michigan's moderating influence, light winds, and absence of strong cold advection or clear-sky radiational cooling. This aligns with the 64-65°F range carrying notable market weight amid clustered mid-50s to low-60s probabilities. The near-even split between sub-48°F (45.5%) and 66°F+ (45.0%) outcomes reflects trader emphasis on forecast uncertainty—short-term model runs can shift with minor changes in cloud cover, dew points, or a weak frontal passage—plus historical precedent for occasional August outliers, even as climatological baselines and recent stable patterns favor the middle buckets. Resolution hinges on official observations at primary stations like O'Hare.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on August 24?
47°F or below 87%
66°F or higher 46%
58-59°F 37%
48-49°F 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
87%
48-49°F
36%
50-51°F
36%
52-53°F
19%
54-55°F
19%
56-57°F
19%
58-59°F
29%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
19%
66°F or higher
46%
47°F or below 87%
66°F or higher 46%
58-59°F 37%
48-49°F 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
47°F or below
$5 Vol.
87%
48-49°F
$5 Vol.
36%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
36%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
19%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
19%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
19%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
29%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
19%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
19%
64-65°F
$5 Vol.
19%
66°F or higher
$0 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from NWS normals and sources like AccuWeather and World-Weather.info point to a typical late-August low near 64°F in Chicago on August 24, driven by Lake Michigan's moderating influence, light winds, and absence of strong cold advection or clear-sky radiational cooling. This aligns with the 64-65°F range carrying notable market weight amid clustered mid-50s to low-60s probabilities. The near-even split between sub-48°F (45.5%) and 66°F+ (45.0%) outcomes reflects trader emphasis on forecast uncertainty—short-term model runs can shift with minor changes in cloud cover, dew points, or a weak frontal passage—plus historical precedent for occasional August outliers, even as climatological baselines and recent stable patterns favor the middle buckets. Resolution hinges on official observations at primary stations like O'Hare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from NWS normals and sources like AccuWeather and World-Weather.info point to a typical late-August low near 64°F in Chicago on August 24, driven by Lake Michigan's moderating influence, light winds, and absence of strong cold advection or clear-sky radiational cooling. This aligns with the 64-65°F range carrying notable market weight amid clustered mid-50s to low-60s probabilities. The near-even split between sub-48°F (45.5%) and 66°F+ (45.0%) outcomes reflects trader emphasis on forecast uncertainty—short-term model runs can shift with minor changes in cloud cover, dew points, or a weak frontal passage—plus historical precedent for occasional August outliers, even as climatological baselines and recent stable patterns favor the middle buckets. Resolution hinges on official observations at primary stations like O'Hare.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from NWS normals and sources like AccuWeather and World-Weather.info point to a typical late-August low near 64°F in Chicago on August 24, driven by Lake Michigan's moderating influence, light winds, and absence of strong cold advection or clear-sky radiational cooling. This aligns with the 64-65°F range carrying notable market weight amid clustered mid-50s to low-60s probabilities. The near-even split between sub-48°F (45.5%) and 66°F+ (45.0%) outcomes reflects trader emphasis on forecast uncertainty—short-term model runs can shift with minor changes in cloud cover, dew points, or a weak frontal passage—plus historical precedent for occasional August outliers, even as climatological baselines and recent stable patterns favor the middle buckets. Resolution hinges on official observations at primary stations like O'Hare.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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