Persistent heat across central Texas, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southwesterly flow, keeps Austin overnight lows elevated during the current heat wave. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate the August 24 minimum will likely settle in the mid-70s°F, reflecting limited radiative cooling under mostly clear skies, dew points near 55–60°F, and light southerly winds that inhibit full nocturnal temperature drops. Market odds near 46% for 73°F or below versus 45% for 92°F or higher highlight trader focus on model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute changes in cloud cover or wind that could alter the cooling curve, though historical August averages near 72–73°F provide context for the current anomaly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Austin on August 24?
92°F or higher 93%
73°F or below 47%
84-85°F 37%
86-87°F 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
73°F or below
47%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
19%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
37%
86-87°F
37%
88-89°F
37%
90-91°F
37%
92°F or higher
93%
92°F or higher 93%
73°F or below 47%
84-85°F 37%
86-87°F 37%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
47%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
19%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
19%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
19%
82-83°F
$4 Vol.
19%
84-85°F
$5 Vol.
37%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
37%
88-89°F
$5 Vol.
37%
90-91°F
$5 Vol.
37%
92°F or higher
$5 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heat across central Texas, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southwesterly flow, keeps Austin overnight lows elevated during the current heat wave. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate the August 24 minimum will likely settle in the mid-70s°F, reflecting limited radiative cooling under mostly clear skies, dew points near 55–60°F, and light southerly winds that inhibit full nocturnal temperature drops. Market odds near 46% for 73°F or below versus 45% for 92°F or higher highlight trader focus on model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute changes in cloud cover or wind that could alter the cooling curve, though historical August averages near 72–73°F provide context for the current anomaly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$29End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent heat across central Texas, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southwesterly flow, keeps Austin overnight lows elevated during the current heat wave. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate the August 24 minimum will likely settle in the mid-70s°F, reflecting limited radiative cooling under mostly clear skies, dew points near 55–60°F, and light southerly winds that inhibit full nocturnal temperature drops. Market odds near 46% for 73°F or below versus 45% for 92°F or higher highlight trader focus on model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute changes in cloud cover or wind that could alter the cooling curve, though historical August averages near 72–73°F provide context for the current anomaly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$29End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent heat across central Texas, driven by a strong subtropical ridge and southwesterly flow, keeps Austin overnight lows elevated during the current heat wave. Official National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models indicate the August 24 minimum will likely settle in the mid-70s°F, reflecting limited radiative cooling under mostly clear skies, dew points near 55–60°F, and light southerly winds that inhibit full nocturnal temperature drops. Market odds near 46% for 73°F or below versus 45% for 92°F or higher highlight trader focus on model spread in boundary-layer mixing and any last-minute changes in cloud cover or wind that could alter the cooling curve, though historical August averages near 72–73°F provide context for the current anomaly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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