Persistent above-normal heat across southeast Texas, driven by strong subtropical high pressure and southwesterly flow, keeps overnight radiative cooling limited, producing forecast minimum temperatures of 78–81°F for Houston on August 24 according to NWS and AccuWeather guidance. This consensus supports the closely matched 69 °F-or-below and 88 °F-or-higher market outcomes by highlighting model sensitivity to small changes in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and dewpoint depression that can shift the low by several degrees. Historical August climatology at Houston Intercontinental shows average lows near 77 °F with rare excursions below 70 °F absent a strong cold front, which none of the current model runs indicate. Traders therefore weigh the narrow window for unexpected nocturnal cooling against the dominant warm advection pattern ahead of the next forecast update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on August 24?
Lowest temperature in Houston on August 24?
88°F or higher 93%
69°F or below 90%
80-81°F 37%
70-71°F 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
69°F or below
90%
70-71°F
36%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
19%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
19%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
2%
88°F or higher
93%
88°F or higher 93%
69°F or below 90%
80-81°F 37%
70-71°F 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
69°F or below
$5 Vol.
90%
70-71°F
$5 Vol.
36%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
19%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
19%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
19%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
19%
80-81°F
$5 Vol.
28%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
19%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
19%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
2%
88°F or higher
$5 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent above-normal heat across southeast Texas, driven by strong subtropical high pressure and southwesterly flow, keeps overnight radiative cooling limited, producing forecast minimum temperatures of 78–81°F for Houston on August 24 according to NWS and AccuWeather guidance. This consensus supports the closely matched 69 °F-or-below and 88 °F-or-higher market outcomes by highlighting model sensitivity to small changes in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and dewpoint depression that can shift the low by several degrees. Historical August climatology at Houston Intercontinental shows average lows near 77 °F with rare excursions below 70 °F absent a strong cold front, which none of the current model runs indicate. Traders therefore weigh the narrow window for unexpected nocturnal cooling against the dominant warm advection pattern ahead of the next forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent above-normal heat across southeast Texas, driven by strong subtropical high pressure and southwesterly flow, keeps overnight radiative cooling limited, producing forecast minimum temperatures of 78–81°F for Houston on August 24 according to NWS and AccuWeather guidance. This consensus supports the closely matched 69 °F-or-below and 88 °F-or-higher market outcomes by highlighting model sensitivity to small changes in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and dewpoint depression that can shift the low by several degrees. Historical August climatology at Houston Intercontinental shows average lows near 77 °F with rare excursions below 70 °F absent a strong cold front, which none of the current model runs indicate. Traders therefore weigh the narrow window for unexpected nocturnal cooling against the dominant warm advection pattern ahead of the next forecast update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent above-normal heat across southeast Texas, driven by strong subtropical high pressure and southwesterly flow, keeps overnight radiative cooling limited, producing forecast minimum temperatures of 78–81°F for Houston on August 24 according to NWS and AccuWeather guidance. This consensus supports the closely matched 69 °F-or-below and 88 °F-or-higher market outcomes by highlighting model sensitivity to small changes in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and dewpoint depression that can shift the low by several degrees. Historical August climatology at Houston Intercontinental shows average lows near 77 °F with rare excursions below 70 °F absent a strong cold front, which none of the current model runs indicate. Traders therefore weigh the narrow window for unexpected nocturnal cooling against the dominant warm advection pattern ahead of the next forecast update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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