Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a persistent marine layer with steady onshore southwest flow and limited nocturnal clearing, anchoring San Francisco’s overnight low near the August climatological average of 57°F at KSFO. This setup favors modest radiative cooling under cloudy skies and 10–20 mph winds, reducing the chance of either strong marine-stratus suppression (sub-50°F readings) or full clearing that would allow warmer downslope air (68°F+). Recent observations confirm stable 54–60°F lows amid frequent low clouds, with minimal model spread for the next 24 hours. Trader sentiment remains nearly even on the extremes because small forecast revisions in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the minimum across key resolution thresholds before the 24-hour period ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?
68°F or higher 92%
49°F or below 91%
58-59°F 37%
50-51°F 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
91%
50-51°F
36%
52-53°F
19%
54-55°F
19%
56-57°F
19%
58-59°F
28%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
19%
64-65°F
36%
66-67°F
1%
68°F or higher
92%
68°F or higher 92%
49°F or below 91%
58-59°F 37%
50-51°F 36%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
$5 Vol.
91%
50-51°F
$5 Vol.
36%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
19%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
19%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
19%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
28%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
19%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
19%
64-65°F
$5 Vol.
36%
66-67°F
$5 Vol.
1%
68°F or higher
$5 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a persistent marine layer with steady onshore southwest flow and limited nocturnal clearing, anchoring San Francisco’s overnight low near the August climatological average of 57°F at KSFO. This setup favors modest radiative cooling under cloudy skies and 10–20 mph winds, reducing the chance of either strong marine-stratus suppression (sub-50°F readings) or full clearing that would allow warmer downslope air (68°F+). Recent observations confirm stable 54–60°F lows amid frequent low clouds, with minimal model spread for the next 24 hours. Trader sentiment remains nearly even on the extremes because small forecast revisions in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the minimum across key resolution thresholds before the 24-hour period ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a persistent marine layer with steady onshore southwest flow and limited nocturnal clearing, anchoring San Francisco’s overnight low near the August climatological average of 57°F at KSFO. This setup favors modest radiative cooling under cloudy skies and 10–20 mph winds, reducing the chance of either strong marine-stratus suppression (sub-50°F readings) or full clearing that would allow warmer downslope air (68°F+). Recent observations confirm stable 54–60°F lows amid frequent low clouds, with minimal model spread for the next 24 hours. Trader sentiment remains nearly even on the extremes because small forecast revisions in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the minimum across key resolution thresholds before the 24-hour period ends.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble models point to a persistent marine layer with steady onshore southwest flow and limited nocturnal clearing, anchoring San Francisco’s overnight low near the August climatological average of 57°F at KSFO. This setup favors modest radiative cooling under cloudy skies and 10–20 mph winds, reducing the chance of either strong marine-stratus suppression (sub-50°F readings) or full clearing that would allow warmer downslope air (68°F+). Recent observations confirm stable 54–60°F lows amid frequent low clouds, with minimal model spread for the next 24 hours. Trader sentiment remains nearly even on the extremes because small forecast revisions in cloud cover or wind speed could shift the minimum across key resolution thresholds before the 24-hour period ends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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