Recent short-range model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and timeanddate.com points to a maximum temperature of 25–28°C for Istanbul on August 16, with 26°C emerging as the modal outcome amid variable cloud cover and fresh northeasterly winds. Sea-breeze effects from the adjacent Bosphorus and Black Sea, typical of late-summer coastal regimes, continue to moderate daytime heating and limit excursions above 28°C, consistent with historical August averages near 27–28°C. Traders have priced this uncertainty heavily into the 25–27°C band, reflecting real-time aggregation of observational data and ensemble spread rather than any single deterministic run. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 16?
26°C 54%
27°C 47%
25°C 27%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
6%
23°C
4%
24°C
5%
25°C
27%
26°C
49%
27°C
26%
28°C
10%
29°C
2%
30°C
6%
31°C
6%
32°C or higher
4%
26°C 54%
27°C 47%
25°C 27%
28°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
$10 Vol.
6%
23°C
$10 Vol.
4%
24°C
$3 Vol.
5%
25°C
$0 Vol.
27%
26°C
$12 Vol.
49%
27°C
$6 Vol.
26%
28°C
$1 Vol.
10%
29°C
$19 Vol.
2%
30°C
$10 Vol.
6%
31°C
$10 Vol.
6%
32°C or higher
$15 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and timeanddate.com points to a maximum temperature of 25–28°C for Istanbul on August 16, with 26°C emerging as the modal outcome amid variable cloud cover and fresh northeasterly winds. Sea-breeze effects from the adjacent Bosphorus and Black Sea, typical of late-summer coastal regimes, continue to moderate daytime heating and limit excursions above 28°C, consistent with historical August averages near 27–28°C. Traders have priced this uncertainty heavily into the 25–27°C band, reflecting real-time aggregation of observational data and ensemble spread rather than any single deterministic run. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$97End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and timeanddate.com points to a maximum temperature of 25–28°C for Istanbul on August 16, with 26°C emerging as the modal outcome amid variable cloud cover and fresh northeasterly winds. Sea-breeze effects from the adjacent Bosphorus and Black Sea, typical of late-summer coastal regimes, continue to moderate daytime heating and limit excursions above 28°C, consistent with historical August averages near 27–28°C. Traders have priced this uncertainty heavily into the 25–27°C band, reflecting real-time aggregation of observational data and ensemble spread rather than any single deterministic run. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$97End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range model consensus from agencies including the UK Met Office and timeanddate.com points to a maximum temperature of 25–28°C for Istanbul on August 16, with 26°C emerging as the modal outcome amid variable cloud cover and fresh northeasterly winds. Sea-breeze effects from the adjacent Bosphorus and Black Sea, typical of late-summer coastal regimes, continue to moderate daytime heating and limit excursions above 28°C, consistent with historical August averages near 27–28°C. Traders have priced this uncertainty heavily into the 25–27°C band, reflecting real-time aggregation of observational data and ensemble spread rather than any single deterministic run. Updated guidance ahead of the 48-hour window will likely refine these implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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