Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to overnight lows near 80–82°F in Miami on August 23, aligning with the market’s heavy clustering around 80–81°F (44%) and 78–79°F (32.5%). Persistent summer humidity, elevated dew points, and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies—following recent record heat—suppress typical nighttime drops below seasonal baselines of 78–80°F. Model consensus favors minimal deviation from these ranges, with sea-breeze influences and any scattered convection providing only modest variability. Updated forecast runs and local observations will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 23?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 23?
80-81°F 48%
78-79°F 35%
76-77°F 14%
84-85°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
33%
80-81°F
39%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
1%
90°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 48%
78-79°F 35%
76-77°F 14%
84-85°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 23, 2026
71°F or below
$58 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$217 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$228 Vol.
8%
76-77°F
$35 Vol.
16%
78-79°F
$61 Vol.
33%
80-81°F
$275 Vol.
39%
82-83°F
$225 Vol.
31%
84-85°F
$262 Vol.
10%
86-87°F
$25 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$76 Vol.
1%
90°F or higher
$75 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to overnight lows near 80–82°F in Miami on August 23, aligning with the market’s heavy clustering around 80–81°F (44%) and 78–79°F (32.5%). Persistent summer humidity, elevated dew points, and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies—following recent record heat—suppress typical nighttime drops below seasonal baselines of 78–80°F. Model consensus favors minimal deviation from these ranges, with sea-breeze influences and any scattered convection providing only modest variability. Updated forecast runs and local observations will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$1,538End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to overnight lows near 80–82°F in Miami on August 23, aligning with the market’s heavy clustering around 80–81°F (44%) and 78–79°F (32.5%). Persistent summer humidity, elevated dew points, and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies—following recent record heat—suppress typical nighttime drops below seasonal baselines of 78–80°F. Model consensus favors minimal deviation from these ranges, with sea-breeze influences and any scattered convection providing only modest variability. Updated forecast runs and local observations will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,538End Date
Aug 23, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to overnight lows near 80–82°F in Miami on August 23, aligning with the market’s heavy clustering around 80–81°F (44%) and 78–79°F (32.5%). Persistent summer humidity, elevated dew points, and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies—following recent record heat—suppress typical nighttime drops below seasonal baselines of 78–80°F. Model consensus favors minimal deviation from these ranges, with sea-breeze influences and any scattered convection providing only modest variability. Updated forecast runs and local observations will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions