Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate an overnight low of 80–81°F for Miami on August 22, reflecting limited nocturnal radiative cooling under persistent high humidity, light winds, and scattered cloud cover typical of late-summer subtropical conditions. Recent record daytime heat has elevated baseline temperatures, with minimums running 2–4°F above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 78°F, while urban heat island effects in the metro area further suppress cooling. Trader positioning aligns with these forecasts, assigning the highest implied probability to the 80–81°F bin, though any increase in convective activity or slight wind shift overnight could allow modest additional cooling toward 78–79°F. Updated model runs and the evening NWS briefing will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 22?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 22?
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 23%
76-77°F 10%
82-83°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
69°F or below
1%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
23%
80-81°F
45%
82-83°F
10%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
2%
88°F or higher
1%
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 23%
76-77°F 10%
82-83°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 22, 2026
69°F or below
$25 Vol.
1%
70-71°F
$25 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$28 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$25 Vol.
6%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
10%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
23%
80-81°F
$451 Vol.
45%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
10%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
7%
86-87°F
$143 Vol.
2%
88°F or higher
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate an overnight low of 80–81°F for Miami on August 22, reflecting limited nocturnal radiative cooling under persistent high humidity, light winds, and scattered cloud cover typical of late-summer subtropical conditions. Recent record daytime heat has elevated baseline temperatures, with minimums running 2–4°F above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 78°F, while urban heat island effects in the metro area further suppress cooling. Trader positioning aligns with these forecasts, assigning the highest implied probability to the 80–81°F bin, though any increase in convective activity or slight wind shift overnight could allow modest additional cooling toward 78–79°F. Updated model runs and the evening NWS briefing will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$702End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate an overnight low of 80–81°F for Miami on August 22, reflecting limited nocturnal radiative cooling under persistent high humidity, light winds, and scattered cloud cover typical of late-summer subtropical conditions. Recent record daytime heat has elevated baseline temperatures, with minimums running 2–4°F above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 78°F, while urban heat island effects in the metro area further suppress cooling. Trader positioning aligns with these forecasts, assigning the highest implied probability to the 80–81°F bin, though any increase in convective activity or slight wind shift overnight could allow modest additional cooling toward 78–79°F. Updated model runs and the evening NWS briefing will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$702End Date
Aug 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 8:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate an overnight low of 80–81°F for Miami on August 22, reflecting limited nocturnal radiative cooling under persistent high humidity, light winds, and scattered cloud cover typical of late-summer subtropical conditions. Recent record daytime heat has elevated baseline temperatures, with minimums running 2–4°F above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 78°F, while urban heat island effects in the metro area further suppress cooling. Trader positioning aligns with these forecasts, assigning the highest implied probability to the 80–81°F bin, though any increase in convective activity or slight wind shift overnight could allow modest additional cooling toward 78–79°F. Updated model runs and the evening NWS briefing will provide the final inputs ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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