Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a high near 91°F in Miami on August 24 amid a persistent warm, humid air mass, with sea-breeze convergence and scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to limit peak heating. These factors explain why traders heavily favor the 90–93°F bins: convection often caps temperatures below model maxima, while light southeast winds and high dew points near 78°F favor only modest warming. Recent extreme-heat episodes, including a 100°F reading on August 18, have raised baseline expectations, yet the typical late-August steering pattern and climatological afternoon-storm frequency keep higher outcomes (94°F+) at low implied probability. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will clarify whether suppressed convection allows a push toward 93°F or if earlier storms hold readings closer to 90°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Miami on August 24?
Highest temperature in Miami on August 24?
92-93°F 48%
90-91°F 37%
88-89°F 7%
94-95°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
83°F or below
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
1%
88-89°F
7%
90-91°F
37%
92-93°F
48%
94-95°F
7%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
2%
100-101°F
1%
102°F or higher
<1%
92-93°F 48%
90-91°F 37%
88-89°F 7%
94-95°F 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
83°F or below
$68 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$203 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$73 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$210 Vol.
7%
90-91°F
$649 Vol.
37%
92-93°F
$362 Vol.
48%
94-95°F
$155 Vol.
7%
96-97°F
$38 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$40 Vol.
2%
100-101°F
$83 Vol.
1%
102°F or higher
$68 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a high near 91°F in Miami on August 24 amid a persistent warm, humid air mass, with sea-breeze convergence and scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to limit peak heating. These factors explain why traders heavily favor the 90–93°F bins: convection often caps temperatures below model maxima, while light southeast winds and high dew points near 78°F favor only modest warming. Recent extreme-heat episodes, including a 100°F reading on August 18, have raised baseline expectations, yet the typical late-August steering pattern and climatological afternoon-storm frequency keep higher outcomes (94°F+) at low implied probability. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will clarify whether suppressed convection allows a push toward 93°F or if earlier storms hold readings closer to 90°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$1,947End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a high near 91°F in Miami on August 24 amid a persistent warm, humid air mass, with sea-breeze convergence and scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to limit peak heating. These factors explain why traders heavily favor the 90–93°F bins: convection often caps temperatures below model maxima, while light southeast winds and high dew points near 78°F favor only modest warming. Recent extreme-heat episodes, including a 100°F reading on August 18, have raised baseline expectations, yet the typical late-August steering pattern and climatological afternoon-storm frequency keep higher outcomes (94°F+) at low implied probability. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will clarify whether suppressed convection allows a push toward 93°F or if earlier storms hold readings closer to 90°F.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,947End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance points to a high near 91°F in Miami on August 24 amid a persistent warm, humid air mass, with sea-breeze convergence and scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected to limit peak heating. These factors explain why traders heavily favor the 90–93°F bins: convection often caps temperatures below model maxima, while light southeast winds and high dew points near 78°F favor only modest warming. Recent extreme-heat episodes, including a 100°F reading on August 18, have raised baseline expectations, yet the typical late-August steering pattern and climatological afternoon-storm frequency keep higher outcomes (94°F+) at low implied probability. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will clarify whether suppressed convection allows a push toward 93°F or if earlier storms hold readings closer to 90°F.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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