Recent forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF indicate unsettled conditions over Helsinki on August 31, with southerly winds, high humidity near 90–96%, and an 80% chance of rain or thunderstorms during the day transitioning to partly cloudy skies overnight. These factors, combined with August 2026 running 0.7°C below the 1991–2020 climatological average, support elevated trader interest in lower overnight minima. Historical data show typical late-August lows near 11.8–13.5°C, and current model runs point to nighttime temperatures potentially reaching 13–15°C under clearing skies and light winds that enhance radiative cooling. The 44% implied probability on 11°C or below reflects this near-term cooling signal, while the cluster of probabilities around 12–17°C captures model spread and the moderating influence of the Baltic Sea. Updated guidance ahead of the resolution window will likely drive further adjustments if forecast lows shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Helsinki on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on August 31?
11°C or below 86%
14°C 50%
13°C 49%
17°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
86%
12°C
25%
13°C
49%
14°C
28%
15°C
28%
16°C
25%
17°C
49%
18°C
2%
19°C
8%
20°C
3%
21°C or higher
25%
11°C or below 86%
14°C 50%
13°C 49%
17°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
86%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$0 Vol.
49%
14°C
$5 Vol.
28%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
25%
17°C
$0 Vol.
49%
18°C
$0 Vol.
2%
19°C
$0 Vol.
8%
20°C
$0 Vol.
3%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF indicate unsettled conditions over Helsinki on August 31, with southerly winds, high humidity near 90–96%, and an 80% chance of rain or thunderstorms during the day transitioning to partly cloudy skies overnight. These factors, combined with August 2026 running 0.7°C below the 1991–2020 climatological average, support elevated trader interest in lower overnight minima. Historical data show typical late-August lows near 11.8–13.5°C, and current model runs point to nighttime temperatures potentially reaching 13–15°C under clearing skies and light winds that enhance radiative cooling. The 44% implied probability on 11°C or below reflects this near-term cooling signal, while the cluster of probabilities around 12–17°C captures model spread and the moderating influence of the Baltic Sea. Updated guidance ahead of the resolution window will likely drive further adjustments if forecast lows shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$5End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF indicate unsettled conditions over Helsinki on August 31, with southerly winds, high humidity near 90–96%, and an 80% chance of rain or thunderstorms during the day transitioning to partly cloudy skies overnight. These factors, combined with August 2026 running 0.7°C below the 1991–2020 climatological average, support elevated trader interest in lower overnight minima. Historical data show typical late-August lows near 11.8–13.5°C, and current model runs point to nighttime temperatures potentially reaching 13–15°C under clearing skies and light winds that enhance radiative cooling. The 44% implied probability on 11°C or below reflects this near-term cooling signal, while the cluster of probabilities around 12–17°C captures model spread and the moderating influence of the Baltic Sea. Updated guidance ahead of the resolution window will likely drive further adjustments if forecast lows shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 29, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and ECMWF indicate unsettled conditions over Helsinki on August 31, with southerly winds, high humidity near 90–96%, and an 80% chance of rain or thunderstorms during the day transitioning to partly cloudy skies overnight. These factors, combined with August 2026 running 0.7°C below the 1991–2020 climatological average, support elevated trader interest in lower overnight minima. Historical data show typical late-August lows near 11.8–13.5°C, and current model runs point to nighttime temperatures potentially reaching 13–15°C under clearing skies and light winds that enhance radiative cooling. The 44% implied probability on 11°C or below reflects this near-term cooling signal, while the cluster of probabilities around 12–17°C captures model spread and the moderating influence of the Baltic Sea. Updated guidance ahead of the resolution window will likely drive further adjustments if forecast lows shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions