**Mild maritime air advection and persistent cloud cover are positioning Helsinki's overnight low near 15°C on August 29, 2026, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Official Finnish Meteorological Institute forecasts show afternoon readings near 19°C under variable clouds with light southeast winds, limiting radiative cooling and holding dew points around 14–15°C. Multiple models converge on a minimum of 14–15°C overnight, consistent with late-August climatology for the region where typical lows range 13–16°C. Recent stability in Baltic Sea temperatures and absence of a stronger cold front have kept probabilities anchored, with only minor downward revisions possible if clearer skies develop before midnight. Traders appear to weigh these consensus model runs heavily ahead of final observational confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Helsinki on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Helsinki on August 29?
14°C 3%
13°C <1%
12°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
$1,385 Vol.
$1,385 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
3%
15°C
66%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C or higher
<1%
14°C 3%
13°C <1%
12°C <1%
10°C or below <1%
$1,385 Vol.
$1,385 Vol.
Aug 29, 2026
10°C or below
$142 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$143 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$128 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$114 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$92 Vol.
3%
15°C
$461 Vol.
66%
16°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$165 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$30 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$50 Vol.
<1%
20°C or higher
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Mild maritime air advection and persistent cloud cover are positioning Helsinki's overnight low near 15°C on August 29, 2026, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Official Finnish Meteorological Institute forecasts show afternoon readings near 19°C under variable clouds with light southeast winds, limiting radiative cooling and holding dew points around 14–15°C. Multiple models converge on a minimum of 14–15°C overnight, consistent with late-August climatology for the region where typical lows range 13–16°C. Recent stability in Baltic Sea temperatures and absence of a stronger cold front have kept probabilities anchored, with only minor downward revisions possible if clearer skies develop before midnight. Traders appear to weigh these consensus model runs heavily ahead of final observational confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,385End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Mild maritime air advection and persistent cloud cover are positioning Helsinki's overnight low near 15°C on August 29, 2026, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Official Finnish Meteorological Institute forecasts show afternoon readings near 19°C under variable clouds with light southeast winds, limiting radiative cooling and holding dew points around 14–15°C. Multiple models converge on a minimum of 14–15°C overnight, consistent with late-August climatology for the region where typical lows range 13–16°C. Recent stability in Baltic Sea temperatures and absence of a stronger cold front have kept probabilities anchored, with only minor downward revisions possible if clearer skies develop before midnight. Traders appear to weigh these consensus model runs heavily ahead of final observational confirmation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,385End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Mild maritime air advection and persistent cloud cover are positioning Helsinki's overnight low near 15°C on August 29, 2026, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability for that outcome.** Official Finnish Meteorological Institute forecasts show afternoon readings near 19°C under variable clouds with light southeast winds, limiting radiative cooling and holding dew points around 14–15°C. Multiple models converge on a minimum of 14–15°C overnight, consistent with late-August climatology for the region where typical lows range 13–16°C. Recent stability in Baltic Sea temperatures and absence of a stronger cold front have kept probabilities anchored, with only minor downward revisions possible if clearer skies develop before midnight. Traders appear to weigh these consensus model runs heavily ahead of final observational confirmation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions