Current forecasts from NOAA and local models project overnight lows near 78–80°F in Austin amid southerly winds of 5–10 mph, high humidity above 70%, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. These conditions, typical of late-summer Gulf air advection without an approaching cold front, support a minimum temperature in the mid-to-upper 70s. Trader consensus reflected in the 43% implied probability for 69°F or below and clustered 31% odds across the 74–81°F bins highlights ongoing uncertainty in short-term model runs and potential for localized cooling under clearer pockets. Historical September 3 averages near 71°F provide context, though 2026 heat persistence has kept probabilities away from sub-70°F outcomes unless a surprise boundary arrives before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Austin on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Austin on September 3?
69°F or below 86%
70-71°F 50%
74-75°F 33%
76-77°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
69°F or below
86%
70-71°F
50%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
33%
76-77°F
33%
78-79°F
33%
80-81°F
33%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
69°F or below 86%
70-71°F 50%
74-75°F 33%
76-77°F 33%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
69°F or below
$12 Vol.
86%
70-71°F
$12 Vol.
50%
72-73°F
$102 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$2 Vol.
33%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
33%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
33%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
33%
82-83°F
$264 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$159 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$32 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$102 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from NOAA and local models project overnight lows near 78–80°F in Austin amid southerly winds of 5–10 mph, high humidity above 70%, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. These conditions, typical of late-summer Gulf air advection without an approaching cold front, support a minimum temperature in the mid-to-upper 70s. Trader consensus reflected in the 43% implied probability for 69°F or below and clustered 31% odds across the 74–81°F bins highlights ongoing uncertainty in short-term model runs and potential for localized cooling under clearer pockets. Historical September 3 averages near 71°F provide context, though 2026 heat persistence has kept probabilities away from sub-70°F outcomes unless a surprise boundary arrives before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$685End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from NOAA and local models project overnight lows near 78–80°F in Austin amid southerly winds of 5–10 mph, high humidity above 70%, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. These conditions, typical of late-summer Gulf air advection without an approaching cold front, support a minimum temperature in the mid-to-upper 70s. Trader consensus reflected in the 43% implied probability for 69°F or below and clustered 31% odds across the 74–81°F bins highlights ongoing uncertainty in short-term model runs and potential for localized cooling under clearer pockets. Historical September 3 averages near 71°F provide context, though 2026 heat persistence has kept probabilities away from sub-70°F outcomes unless a surprise boundary arrives before dawn.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$685End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from NOAA and local models project overnight lows near 78–80°F in Austin amid southerly winds of 5–10 mph, high humidity above 70%, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. These conditions, typical of late-summer Gulf air advection without an approaching cold front, support a minimum temperature in the mid-to-upper 70s. Trader consensus reflected in the 43% implied probability for 69°F or below and clustered 31% odds across the 74–81°F bins highlights ongoing uncertainty in short-term model runs and potential for localized cooling under clearer pockets. Historical September 3 averages near 71°F provide context, though 2026 heat persistence has kept probabilities away from sub-70°F outcomes unless a surprise boundary arrives before dawn.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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