Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private sources converge on a high temperature near 99–101°F for Austin on September 3, 2026, driven by strong southerly flow, abundant low-level moisture, and clear to partly cloudy skies that allow strong solar heating. This places readings well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 93.9°F. Afternoon instability introduces a 20–30% chance of showers or thunderstorms that could briefly limit peak temperatures through evaporative cooling and increased cloud cover. Heat indices reaching 107–109°F underscore the role of high dew points in amplifying perceived warmth. Trader consensus, reflected in the 46% implied probability for 100–101°F and 28.5% for 98–99°F, aligns with these official guidance updates issued early on September 3, with limited scope for significant upward revision absent unexpected clearing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 3?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 3?
100-101°F 48%
98-99°F 28%
102-103°F 18%
96-97°F 6%
$23,018 Vol.
$23,018 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
1%
94-95°F
3%
96-97°F
6%
98-99°F
28%
100-101°F
48%
102-103°F
18%
104°F or higher
2%
100-101°F 48%
98-99°F 28%
102-103°F 18%
96-97°F 6%
$23,018 Vol.
$23,018 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
85°F or below
$5,532 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$261 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$1,184 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$849 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$1,330 Vol.
1%
94-95°F
$2,007 Vol.
3%
96-97°F
$2,989 Vol.
6%
98-99°F
$5,083 Vol.
28%
100-101°F
$1,737 Vol.
48%
102-103°F
$1,214 Vol.
18%
104°F or higher
$833 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private sources converge on a high temperature near 99–101°F for Austin on September 3, 2026, driven by strong southerly flow, abundant low-level moisture, and clear to partly cloudy skies that allow strong solar heating. This places readings well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 93.9°F. Afternoon instability introduces a 20–30% chance of showers or thunderstorms that could briefly limit peak temperatures through evaporative cooling and increased cloud cover. Heat indices reaching 107–109°F underscore the role of high dew points in amplifying perceived warmth. Trader consensus, reflected in the 46% implied probability for 100–101°F and 28.5% for 98–99°F, aligns with these official guidance updates issued early on September 3, with limited scope for significant upward revision absent unexpected clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$23,018End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private sources converge on a high temperature near 99–101°F for Austin on September 3, 2026, driven by strong southerly flow, abundant low-level moisture, and clear to partly cloudy skies that allow strong solar heating. This places readings well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 93.9°F. Afternoon instability introduces a 20–30% chance of showers or thunderstorms that could briefly limit peak temperatures through evaporative cooling and increased cloud cover. Heat indices reaching 107–109°F underscore the role of high dew points in amplifying perceived warmth. Trader consensus, reflected in the 46% implied probability for 100–101°F and 28.5% for 98–99°F, aligns with these official guidance updates issued early on September 3, with limited scope for significant upward revision absent unexpected clearing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,018End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the National Weather Service and private sources converge on a high temperature near 99–101°F for Austin on September 3, 2026, driven by strong southerly flow, abundant low-level moisture, and clear to partly cloudy skies that allow strong solar heating. This places readings well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 93.9°F. Afternoon instability introduces a 20–30% chance of showers or thunderstorms that could briefly limit peak temperatures through evaporative cooling and increased cloud cover. Heat indices reaching 107–109°F underscore the role of high dew points in amplifying perceived warmth. Trader consensus, reflected in the 46% implied probability for 100–101°F and 28.5% for 98–99°F, aligns with these official guidance updates issued early on September 3, with limited scope for significant upward revision absent unexpected clearing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions