National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models position a high near 103–105°F as the most probable outcome for Austin on August 24, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge, strong southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover that favor further intensification of the current heat wave. Recent observations show daily maxima climbing from 102°F to 105°F through the weekend with heat indices reaching 108–112°F, consistent with above-normal August climatology and limited moisture return. Model consensus narrows the range but retains uncertainty from small timing shifts in boundary-layer mixing or dew points, keeping 104–105°F as the market leader while lower bins reflect downside risks if mixing is stronger than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on August 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 24?
104-105°F 55%
102-103°F 30%
106-107°F 10%
98-99°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
6%
100-101°F
5%
102-103°F
30%
104-105°F
55%
106-107°F
10%
108-109°F
6%
110-111°F
4%
112-113°F
5%
114°F or higher
2%
104-105°F 55%
102-103°F 30%
106-107°F 10%
98-99°F 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
$10 Vol.
<1%
96-97°F
$10 Vol.
1%
98-99°F
$10 Vol.
6%
100-101°F
$12 Vol.
5%
102-103°F
$193 Vol.
30%
104-105°F
$220 Vol.
55%
106-107°F
$20 Vol.
10%
108-109°F
$10 Vol.
6%
110-111°F
$10 Vol.
4%
112-113°F
$5 Vol.
5%
114°F or higher
$10 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models position a high near 103–105°F as the most probable outcome for Austin on August 24, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge, strong southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover that favor further intensification of the current heat wave. Recent observations show daily maxima climbing from 102°F to 105°F through the weekend with heat indices reaching 108–112°F, consistent with above-normal August climatology and limited moisture return. Model consensus narrows the range but retains uncertainty from small timing shifts in boundary-layer mixing or dew points, keeping 104–105°F as the market leader while lower bins reflect downside risks if mixing is stronger than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$510End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models position a high near 103–105°F as the most probable outcome for Austin on August 24, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge, strong southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover that favor further intensification of the current heat wave. Recent observations show daily maxima climbing from 102°F to 105°F through the weekend with heat indices reaching 108–112°F, consistent with above-normal August climatology and limited moisture return. Model consensus narrows the range but retains uncertainty from small timing shifts in boundary-layer mixing or dew points, keeping 104–105°F as the market leader while lower bins reflect downside risks if mixing is stronger than expected.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$510End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble models position a high near 103–105°F as the most probable outcome for Austin on August 24, driven by a persistent upper-level ridge, strong southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover that favor further intensification of the current heat wave. Recent observations show daily maxima climbing from 102°F to 105°F through the weekend with heat indices reaching 108–112°F, consistent with above-normal August climatology and limited moisture return. Model consensus narrows the range but retains uncertainty from small timing shifts in boundary-layer mixing or dew points, keeping 104–105°F as the market leader while lower bins reflect downside risks if mixing is stronger than expected.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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