Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and easterly to northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating across the Kanto region, keeping the maximum temperature in Tokyo on September 4 centered near 26–28 °C according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global model runs. These conditions contrast with the clearer, warmer regime on September 3 and align with climatological norms for early-September post-frontal environments. Official forecasts and ensemble outputs show tight clustering around 26 °C, with limited upside potential unless breaks in the cloud deck develop earlier than expected; downside risk remains modest given the already cool marine influence. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 26–28 °C outcomes, reflecting the strong consensus in near-term observational and numerical data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 4?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 4?
27°C 37%
26°C 25%
28°C 18%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
4%
25°C
11%
26°C
25%
27°C
37%
28°C
18%
29°C
4%
30°C
2%
31°C or higher
2%
27°C 37%
26°C 25%
28°C 18%
25°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
21°C or below
$1,278 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,161 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,048 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$709 Vol.
4%
25°C
$1,332 Vol.
11%
26°C
$2,590 Vol.
25%
27°C
$397 Vol.
37%
28°C
$484 Vol.
18%
29°C
$403 Vol.
4%
30°C
$224 Vol.
2%
31°C or higher
$258 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and easterly to northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating across the Kanto region, keeping the maximum temperature in Tokyo on September 4 centered near 26–28 °C according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global model runs. These conditions contrast with the clearer, warmer regime on September 3 and align with climatological norms for early-September post-frontal environments. Official forecasts and ensemble outputs show tight clustering around 26 °C, with limited upside potential unless breaks in the cloud deck develop earlier than expected; downside risk remains modest given the already cool marine influence. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 26–28 °C outcomes, reflecting the strong consensus in near-term observational and numerical data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,884End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and easterly to northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating across the Kanto region, keeping the maximum temperature in Tokyo on September 4 centered near 26–28 °C according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global model runs. These conditions contrast with the clearer, warmer regime on September 3 and align with climatological norms for early-September post-frontal environments. Official forecasts and ensemble outputs show tight clustering around 26 °C, with limited upside potential unless breaks in the cloud deck develop earlier than expected; downside risk remains modest given the already cool marine influence. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 26–28 °C outcomes, reflecting the strong consensus in near-term observational and numerical data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,884End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover, widespread showers, and easterly to northerly flow are suppressing daytime heating across the Kanto region, keeping the maximum temperature in Tokyo on September 4 centered near 26–28 °C according to the latest Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and global model runs. These conditions contrast with the clearer, warmer regime on September 3 and align with climatological norms for early-September post-frontal environments. Official forecasts and ensemble outputs show tight clustering around 26 °C, with limited upside potential unless breaks in the cloud deck develop earlier than expected; downside risk remains modest given the already cool marine influence. Traders have therefore concentrated implied probability on 26–28 °C outcomes, reflecting the strong consensus in near-term observational and numerical data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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