Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Office and Chinese weather services indicate mostly cloudy conditions on September 5 with a high near 32–33°C, influenced by lingering high-pressure control that has sustained upper-30s readings earlier in the week but is now allowing increased moisture and scattered western showers. Global models show modest divergence, with some projecting brief clearer intervals supporting peaks near 35°C, while others align closer to local guidance amid rising humidity and reduced insolation. This narrow spread between 33°C and 36°C outcomes explains the tightly matched market-implied probabilities, as traders weigh the timing of cloud cover and any late-day convective activity against historical September baselines around 29–31°C. Updated model runs and the next local briefing in the coming 24 hours represent the key data points that could shift consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 5?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 5?
35°C 24%
34°C 23%
36°C 21%
37°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
28°C or below
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
2%
31°C
3%
32°C
5%
33°C
17%
34°C
23%
35°C
24%
36°C
21%
37°C
20%
38°C or higher
18%
35°C 24%
34°C 23%
36°C 21%
37°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$10 Vol.
2%
31°C
$0 Vol.
3%
32°C
$20 Vol.
5%
33°C
$2 Vol.
17%
34°C
$0 Vol.
23%
35°C
$0 Vol.
24%
36°C
$0 Vol.
21%
37°C
$0 Vol.
20%
38°C or higher
$0 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Office and Chinese weather services indicate mostly cloudy conditions on September 5 with a high near 32–33°C, influenced by lingering high-pressure control that has sustained upper-30s readings earlier in the week but is now allowing increased moisture and scattered western showers. Global models show modest divergence, with some projecting brief clearer intervals supporting peaks near 35°C, while others align closer to local guidance amid rising humidity and reduced insolation. This narrow spread between 33°C and 36°C outcomes explains the tightly matched market-implied probabilities, as traders weigh the timing of cloud cover and any late-day convective activity against historical September baselines around 29–31°C. Updated model runs and the next local briefing in the coming 24 hours represent the key data points that could shift consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$32End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Office and Chinese weather services indicate mostly cloudy conditions on September 5 with a high near 32–33°C, influenced by lingering high-pressure control that has sustained upper-30s readings earlier in the week but is now allowing increased moisture and scattered western showers. Global models show modest divergence, with some projecting brief clearer intervals supporting peaks near 35°C, while others align closer to local guidance amid rising humidity and reduced insolation. This narrow spread between 33°C and 36°C outcomes explains the tightly matched market-implied probabilities, as traders weigh the timing of cloud cover and any late-day convective activity against historical September baselines around 29–31°C. Updated model runs and the next local briefing in the coming 24 hours represent the key data points that could shift consensus before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$32End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Office and Chinese weather services indicate mostly cloudy conditions on September 5 with a high near 32–33°C, influenced by lingering high-pressure control that has sustained upper-30s readings earlier in the week but is now allowing increased moisture and scattered western showers. Global models show modest divergence, with some projecting brief clearer intervals supporting peaks near 35°C, while others align closer to local guidance amid rising humidity and reduced insolation. This narrow spread between 33°C and 36°C outcomes explains the tightly matched market-implied probabilities, as traders weigh the timing of cloud cover and any late-day convective activity against historical September baselines around 29–31°C. Updated model runs and the next local briefing in the coming 24 hours represent the key data points that could shift consensus before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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