Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Tokyo's overnight low on September 3 will likely settle near 24–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limit radiative cooling under a warm, moist air mass. Southerly to northerly wind shifts and dew points near 23–24°C further suppress temperature drops, consistent with early September climatology where minimums average 22–23°C but often run higher amid unsettled conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in 25°C holding 56% implied probability and 26°C at 34.5%, aligns with these consensus model runs; any clearer skies or stronger northerly flow overnight could push readings toward 24°C, while sustained rain would favor the upper end of the range. Updated guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 3?
26°C 49%
24°C 10%
23°C 2%
22°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
10%
25°C
42%
26°C
49%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 49%
24°C 10%
23°C 2%
22°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
21°C or below
$657 Vol.
1%
22°C
$406 Vol.
1%
23°C
$383 Vol.
2%
24°C
$639 Vol.
10%
25°C
$322 Vol.
42%
26°C
$801 Vol.
49%
27°C
$494 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$368 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$190 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$270 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$230 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Tokyo's overnight low on September 3 will likely settle near 24–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limit radiative cooling under a warm, moist air mass. Southerly to northerly wind shifts and dew points near 23–24°C further suppress temperature drops, consistent with early September climatology where minimums average 22–23°C but often run higher amid unsettled conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in 25°C holding 56% implied probability and 26°C at 34.5%, aligns with these consensus model runs; any clearer skies or stronger northerly flow overnight could push readings toward 24°C, while sustained rain would favor the upper end of the range. Updated guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,761End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Tokyo's overnight low on September 3 will likely settle near 24–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limit radiative cooling under a warm, moist air mass. Southerly to northerly wind shifts and dew points near 23–24°C further suppress temperature drops, consistent with early September climatology where minimums average 22–23°C but often run higher amid unsettled conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in 25°C holding 56% implied probability and 26°C at 34.5%, aligns with these consensus model runs; any clearer skies or stronger northerly flow overnight could push readings toward 24°C, while sustained rain would favor the upper end of the range. Updated guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,761End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Tokyo's overnight low on September 3 will likely settle near 24–25°C, driven by persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and high humidity that limit radiative cooling under a warm, moist air mass. Southerly to northerly wind shifts and dew points near 23–24°C further suppress temperature drops, consistent with early September climatology where minimums average 22–23°C but often run higher amid unsettled conditions. Trader consensus, reflected in 25°C holding 56% implied probability and 26°C at 34.5%, aligns with these consensus model runs; any clearer skies or stronger northerly flow overnight could push readings toward 24°C, while sustained rain would favor the upper end of the range. Updated guidance from agencies like the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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