Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models show Madrid's maximum temperature on September 5 likely peaking near 37–38°C under a ridge of high pressure promoting subsidence and clear skies. Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, wind direction from the interior plateau, and minor variations in afternoon cloud cover or soil moisture explain the tight spread between those two leading outcomes. Historical September baselines for the city average around 28–30°C, so this anomaly reflects stronger-than-normal warm advection. Traders are watching the next AEMET and ECMWF runs for any shifts in the 850 hPa temperature field or timing of peak heating, as even a 1°C adjustment can alter implied probabilities noticeably before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
37°C 42%
38°C 38%
39°C 18%
40°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
33°C or below
4%
34°C
4%
35°C
17%
36°C
16%
37°C
42%
38°C
38%
39°C
18%
40°C
18%
41°C
5%
42°C
2%
43°C or higher
2%
37°C 42%
38°C 38%
39°C 18%
40°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
33°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
34°C
$0 Vol.
4%
35°C
$26 Vol.
17%
36°C
$123 Vol.
16%
37°C
$79 Vol.
42%
38°C
$42 Vol.
38%
39°C
$0 Vol.
18%
40°C
$0 Vol.
18%
41°C
$0 Vol.
5%
42°C
$0 Vol.
2%
43°C or higher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models show Madrid's maximum temperature on September 5 likely peaking near 37–38°C under a ridge of high pressure promoting subsidence and clear skies. Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, wind direction from the interior plateau, and minor variations in afternoon cloud cover or soil moisture explain the tight spread between those two leading outcomes. Historical September baselines for the city average around 28–30°C, so this anomaly reflects stronger-than-normal warm advection. Traders are watching the next AEMET and ECMWF runs for any shifts in the 850 hPa temperature field or timing of peak heating, as even a 1°C adjustment can alter implied probabilities noticeably before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$270End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models show Madrid's maximum temperature on September 5 likely peaking near 37–38°C under a ridge of high pressure promoting subsidence and clear skies. Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, wind direction from the interior plateau, and minor variations in afternoon cloud cover or soil moisture explain the tight spread between those two leading outcomes. Historical September baselines for the city average around 28–30°C, so this anomaly reflects stronger-than-normal warm advection. Traders are watching the next AEMET and ECMWF runs for any shifts in the 850 hPa temperature field or timing of peak heating, as even a 1°C adjustment can alter implied probabilities noticeably before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$270End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS models show Madrid's maximum temperature on September 5 likely peaking near 37–38°C under a ridge of high pressure promoting subsidence and clear skies. Subtle differences in boundary-layer mixing, wind direction from the interior plateau, and minor variations in afternoon cloud cover or soil moisture explain the tight spread between those two leading outcomes. Historical September baselines for the city average around 28–30°C, so this anomaly reflects stronger-than-normal warm advection. Traders are watching the next AEMET and ECMWF runs for any shifts in the 850 hPa temperature field or timing of peak heating, as even a 1°C adjustment can alter implied probabilities noticeably before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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