Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological agencies indicate a high-pressure system dominating northern Italy, delivering clear skies, light westerly winds, and strong solar insolation that should drive Milan’s September 5 maximum into the low-to-mid 30s °C. Model consensus centers on afternoon peaks near 34–35 °C, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 33 °C (44 %) and 34 °C (34.5 %). Subtle differences among runs arise mainly from small variations in boundary-layer mixing depth and the timing of any thin high cloud, which can trim or add 1 °C to the daily maximum. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 26 °C, so the current warm anomaly reflects both the blocking pattern and seasonal soil-moisture deficits that amplify daytime heating. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 5?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 5?
33°C 43%
34°C 32%
32°C 20%
31°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
28°C or below
4%
29°C
4%
30°C
2%
31°C
7%
32°C
13%
33°C
43%
34°C
32%
35°C
5%
36°C
2%
37°C
5%
38°C or higher
4%
33°C 43%
34°C 32%
32°C 20%
31°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
28°C or below
$0 Vol.
4%
29°C
$0 Vol.
4%
30°C
$100 Vol.
2%
31°C
$0 Vol.
7%
32°C
$57 Vol.
13%
33°C
$5 Vol.
43%
34°C
$63 Vol.
32%
35°C
$23 Vol.
5%
36°C
$0 Vol.
2%
37°C
$0 Vol.
5%
38°C or higher
$0 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological agencies indicate a high-pressure system dominating northern Italy, delivering clear skies, light westerly winds, and strong solar insolation that should drive Milan’s September 5 maximum into the low-to-mid 30s °C. Model consensus centers on afternoon peaks near 34–35 °C, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 33 °C (44 %) and 34 °C (34.5 %). Subtle differences among runs arise mainly from small variations in boundary-layer mixing depth and the timing of any thin high cloud, which can trim or add 1 °C to the daily maximum. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 26 °C, so the current warm anomaly reflects both the blocking pattern and seasonal soil-moisture deficits that amplify daytime heating. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$248End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological agencies indicate a high-pressure system dominating northern Italy, delivering clear skies, light westerly winds, and strong solar insolation that should drive Milan’s September 5 maximum into the low-to-mid 30s °C. Model consensus centers on afternoon peaks near 34–35 °C, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 33 °C (44 %) and 34 °C (34.5 %). Subtle differences among runs arise mainly from small variations in boundary-layer mixing depth and the timing of any thin high cloud, which can trim or add 1 °C to the daily maximum. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 26 °C, so the current warm anomaly reflects both the blocking pattern and seasonal soil-moisture deficits that amplify daytime heating. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$248End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological agencies indicate a high-pressure system dominating northern Italy, delivering clear skies, light westerly winds, and strong solar insolation that should drive Milan’s September 5 maximum into the low-to-mid 30s °C. Model consensus centers on afternoon peaks near 34–35 °C, consistent with the market’s tight clustering around 33 °C (44 %) and 34 °C (34.5 %). Subtle differences among runs arise mainly from small variations in boundary-layer mixing depth and the timing of any thin high cloud, which can trim or add 1 °C to the daily maximum. Historical September climatology shows typical highs near 26 °C, so the current warm anomaly reflects both the blocking pattern and seasonal soil-moisture deficits that amplify daytime heating. Updated model runs and official observations over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts for any further shifts in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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