Latest forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models points to a September 4 high in Shenzhen of 28–30 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or thundershowers, and northwesterly flow that limits daytime heating. Recent observations on September 3 showed similar conditions with afternoon peaks near 29–30 °C under partly cloudy skies, setting a baseline for modest cooling or stabilization. High humidity near 75–85 % and dew points around 23–24 °C further moderate maximum temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing net radiation. Resolution hinges on whether convective activity develops enough to suppress the peak below 29 °C or allows brief clearing for a 30 °C reading; updated runs from global and regional models expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 4?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 4?
29°C 38%
30°C 24%
28°C 21%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
3%
27°C
7%
28°C
21%
29°C
38%
30°C
24%
31°C
9%
32°C or higher
1%
29°C 38%
30°C 24%
28°C 21%
31°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
22°C or below
$6 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$11 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$468 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$330 Vol.
2%
26°C
$1,166 Vol.
3%
27°C
$3,027 Vol.
7%
28°C
$1,351 Vol.
21%
29°C
$931 Vol.
38%
30°C
$1,259 Vol.
24%
31°C
$519 Vol.
9%
32°C or higher
$426 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models points to a September 4 high in Shenzhen of 28–30 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or thundershowers, and northwesterly flow that limits daytime heating. Recent observations on September 3 showed similar conditions with afternoon peaks near 29–30 °C under partly cloudy skies, setting a baseline for modest cooling or stabilization. High humidity near 75–85 % and dew points around 23–24 °C further moderate maximum temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing net radiation. Resolution hinges on whether convective activity develops enough to suppress the peak below 29 °C or allows brief clearing for a 30 °C reading; updated runs from global and regional models expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,494End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models points to a September 4 high in Shenzhen of 28–30 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or thundershowers, and northwesterly flow that limits daytime heating. Recent observations on September 3 showed similar conditions with afternoon peaks near 29–30 °C under partly cloudy skies, setting a baseline for modest cooling or stabilization. High humidity near 75–85 % and dew points around 23–24 °C further moderate maximum temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing net radiation. Resolution hinges on whether convective activity develops enough to suppress the peak below 29 °C or allows brief clearing for a 30 °C reading; updated runs from global and regional models expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities before market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,494End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecast consensus from meteorological agencies and models points to a September 4 high in Shenzhen of 28–30 °C, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or thundershowers, and northwesterly flow that limits daytime heating. Recent observations on September 3 showed similar conditions with afternoon peaks near 29–30 °C under partly cloudy skies, setting a baseline for modest cooling or stabilization. High humidity near 75–85 % and dew points around 23–24 °C further moderate maximum temperatures by enhancing evaporative cooling and reducing net radiation. Resolution hinges on whether convective activity develops enough to suppress the peak below 29 °C or allows brief clearing for a 30 °C reading; updated runs from global and regional models expected overnight will likely refine these probabilities before market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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