**Forecast models from agencies including the Hydrometeorological Center and international sources project a daytime maximum of 20–22°C for Moscow on September 4, 2026, under southwesterly flow and partly cloudy conditions.** This places the market’s leading 21°C outcome (53% implied probability) in line with the central tendency of current runs, which show highs near or slightly above the 18.7°C climatological average for the date while remaining well below the 26.9°C record. Light winds and limited daytime heating from variable cloud cover keep probabilities for 22°C (27.5%) and 20°C (15%) as plausible alternatives, depending on the precise timing of any showers. Updated model guidance expected overnight will refine the exact peak and influence final trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 4?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 4?
21°C 53%
22°C 28%
20°C 16%
19°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
3%
20°C
16%
21°C
53%
22°C
28%
23°C
3%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
<1%
21°C 53%
22°C 28%
20°C 16%
19°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
16°C or below
$121 Vol.
1%
17°C
$41 Vol.
1%
18°C
$82 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$202 Vol.
3%
20°C
$140 Vol.
16%
21°C
$604 Vol.
53%
22°C
$100 Vol.
28%
23°C
$491 Vol.
3%
24°C
$1 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$27 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from agencies including the Hydrometeorological Center and international sources project a daytime maximum of 20–22°C for Moscow on September 4, 2026, under southwesterly flow and partly cloudy conditions.** This places the market’s leading 21°C outcome (53% implied probability) in line with the central tendency of current runs, which show highs near or slightly above the 18.7°C climatological average for the date while remaining well below the 26.9°C record. Light winds and limited daytime heating from variable cloud cover keep probabilities for 22°C (27.5%) and 20°C (15%) as plausible alternatives, depending on the precise timing of any showers. Updated model guidance expected overnight will refine the exact peak and influence final trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$1,851End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from agencies including the Hydrometeorological Center and international sources project a daytime maximum of 20–22°C for Moscow on September 4, 2026, under southwesterly flow and partly cloudy conditions.** This places the market’s leading 21°C outcome (53% implied probability) in line with the central tendency of current runs, which show highs near or slightly above the 18.7°C climatological average for the date while remaining well below the 26.9°C record. Light winds and limited daytime heating from variable cloud cover keep probabilities for 22°C (27.5%) and 20°C (15%) as plausible alternatives, depending on the precise timing of any showers. Updated model guidance expected overnight will refine the exact peak and influence final trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,851End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models from agencies including the Hydrometeorological Center and international sources project a daytime maximum of 20–22°C for Moscow on September 4, 2026, under southwesterly flow and partly cloudy conditions.** This places the market’s leading 21°C outcome (53% implied probability) in line with the central tendency of current runs, which show highs near or slightly above the 18.7°C climatological average for the date while remaining well below the 26.9°C record. Light winds and limited daytime heating from variable cloud cover keep probabilities for 22°C (27.5%) and 20°C (15%) as plausible alternatives, depending on the precise timing of any showers. Updated model guidance expected overnight will refine the exact peak and influence final trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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