Recent ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 4 will likely fall between 12–14°C, shaped by southerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and light winds that moderate radiational cooling overnight. This places the outcome near or slightly above seasonal norms for early September, when average lows hover around 8–10°C. Minor differences across model runs—particularly in boundary-layer moisture and any brief clearing—account for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 11–14°C. Updated high-resolution guidance and surface observations through the night will further constrain the exact minimum before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 4?
7°C 88%
6°C or below 87%
8°C 87%
9°C 87%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
6°C or below
87%
7°C
88%
8°C
87%
9°C
87%
10°C
45%
11°C
50%
12°C
86%
13°C
45%
14°C
46%
15°C
87%
16°C or higher
87%
7°C 88%
6°C or below 87%
8°C 87%
9°C 87%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
6°C or below
$0 Vol.
87%
7°C
$0 Vol.
88%
8°C
$0 Vol.
87%
9°C
$0 Vol.
87%
10°C
$0 Vol.
45%
11°C
$0 Vol.
50%
12°C
$0 Vol.
86%
13°C
$0 Vol.
45%
14°C
$0 Vol.
46%
15°C
$0 Vol.
87%
16°C or higher
$0 Vol.
87%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 4 will likely fall between 12–14°C, shaped by southerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and light winds that moderate radiational cooling overnight. This places the outcome near or slightly above seasonal norms for early September, when average lows hover around 8–10°C. Minor differences across model runs—particularly in boundary-layer moisture and any brief clearing—account for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 11–14°C. Updated high-resolution guidance and surface observations through the night will further constrain the exact minimum before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 4 will likely fall between 12–14°C, shaped by southerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and light winds that moderate radiational cooling overnight. This places the outcome near or slightly above seasonal norms for early September, when average lows hover around 8–10°C. Minor differences across model runs—particularly in boundary-layer moisture and any brief clearing—account for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 11–14°C. Updated high-resolution guidance and surface observations through the night will further constrain the exact minimum before the market resolves.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major numerical weather prediction models indicate Moscow's minimum temperature on September 4 will likely fall between 12–14°C, shaped by southerly flow, persistent cloud cover, and light winds that moderate radiational cooling overnight. This places the outcome near or slightly above seasonal norms for early September, when average lows hover around 8–10°C. Minor differences across model runs—particularly in boundary-layer moisture and any brief clearing—account for the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 11–14°C. Updated high-resolution guidance and surface observations through the night will further constrain the exact minimum before the market resolves.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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