Clear, sunny conditions under high pressure are driving trader consensus toward a 31–32°C peak in Milan on September 3, with 31°C holding the highest implied probability at 60.5%. Official forecasts from multiple models project afternoon highs of 31–34°C amid light winds and minimal cloud cover, allowing strong solar heating in the Po Valley. This exceeds the early-September climatological average of roughly 22–26°C, reflecting a transient warm anomaly rather than a broader heatwave. Hourly observations through midday have tracked toward the upper end of model guidance, yet slight variations in timing of peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty in the exact maximum. Updated forecasts from agencies such as the Italian Meteorological Service will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 3?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 3?
31°C 59%
32°C 25%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
$23,122 Vol.
$23,122 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
16%
31°C
59%
32°C
25%
33°C
5%
34°C or higher
<1%
31°C 59%
32°C 25%
30°C 16%
33°C 5%
$23,122 Vol.
$23,122 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
24°C or below
$644 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,308 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,224 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,202 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$274 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,580 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$5,109 Vol.
16%
31°C
$4,366 Vol.
59%
32°C
$3,222 Vol.
25%
33°C
$2,419 Vol.
5%
34°C or higher
$1,774 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear, sunny conditions under high pressure are driving trader consensus toward a 31–32°C peak in Milan on September 3, with 31°C holding the highest implied probability at 60.5%. Official forecasts from multiple models project afternoon highs of 31–34°C amid light winds and minimal cloud cover, allowing strong solar heating in the Po Valley. This exceeds the early-September climatological average of roughly 22–26°C, reflecting a transient warm anomaly rather than a broader heatwave. Hourly observations through midday have tracked toward the upper end of model guidance, yet slight variations in timing of peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty in the exact maximum. Updated forecasts from agencies such as the Italian Meteorological Service will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$23,122End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear, sunny conditions under high pressure are driving trader consensus toward a 31–32°C peak in Milan on September 3, with 31°C holding the highest implied probability at 60.5%. Official forecasts from multiple models project afternoon highs of 31–34°C amid light winds and minimal cloud cover, allowing strong solar heating in the Po Valley. This exceeds the early-September climatological average of roughly 22–26°C, reflecting a transient warm anomaly rather than a broader heatwave. Hourly observations through midday have tracked toward the upper end of model guidance, yet slight variations in timing of peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty in the exact maximum. Updated forecasts from agencies such as the Italian Meteorological Service will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$23,122End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Clear, sunny conditions under high pressure are driving trader consensus toward a 31–32°C peak in Milan on September 3, with 31°C holding the highest implied probability at 60.5%. Official forecasts from multiple models project afternoon highs of 31–34°C amid light winds and minimal cloud cover, allowing strong solar heating in the Po Valley. This exceeds the early-September climatological average of roughly 22–26°C, reflecting a transient warm anomaly rather than a broader heatwave. Hourly observations through midday have tracked toward the upper end of model guidance, yet slight variations in timing of peak insolation or boundary-layer mixing introduce uncertainty in the exact maximum. Updated forecasts from agencies such as the Italian Meteorological Service will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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