Trader consensus places the strongest implied probability on a 17°C daily minimum in Milan, reflecting ensemble forecast models from major centers showing overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light winds typical of stable high-pressure patterns over the Po Valley. This aligns with climatological baselines for early September, where minimum temperatures commonly reach the mid-teens Celsius amid moderate humidity and minimal cloud cover. Recent model consensus has narrowed uncertainty around this threshold, though slight variations in dew point or wind could shift the outcome toward 16°C or 18°C. Key resolution depends on official observational data through the night, with traders monitoring any late adjustments in guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 3?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 3?
17°C 97%
16°C 5%
15°C 1.6%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
8%
17°C
77%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
17°C 97%
16°C 5%
15°C 1.6%
14°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 3, 2026
13°C or below
$62 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$77 Vol.
1%
15°C
$295 Vol.
2%
16°C
$83 Vol.
8%
17°C
$239 Vol.
77%
18°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$246 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$278 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$122 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$35 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus places the strongest implied probability on a 17°C daily minimum in Milan, reflecting ensemble forecast models from major centers showing overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light winds typical of stable high-pressure patterns over the Po Valley. This aligns with climatological baselines for early September, where minimum temperatures commonly reach the mid-teens Celsius amid moderate humidity and minimal cloud cover. Recent model consensus has narrowed uncertainty around this threshold, though slight variations in dew point or wind could shift the outcome toward 16°C or 18°C. Key resolution depends on official observational data through the night, with traders monitoring any late adjustments in guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,592End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus places the strongest implied probability on a 17°C daily minimum in Milan, reflecting ensemble forecast models from major centers showing overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light winds typical of stable high-pressure patterns over the Po Valley. This aligns with climatological baselines for early September, where minimum temperatures commonly reach the mid-teens Celsius amid moderate humidity and minimal cloud cover. Recent model consensus has narrowed uncertainty around this threshold, though slight variations in dew point or wind could shift the outcome toward 16°C or 18°C. Key resolution depends on official observational data through the night, with traders monitoring any late adjustments in guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,592End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus places the strongest implied probability on a 17°C daily minimum in Milan, reflecting ensemble forecast models from major centers showing overnight radiative cooling under clear skies and light winds typical of stable high-pressure patterns over the Po Valley. This aligns with climatological baselines for early September, where minimum temperatures commonly reach the mid-teens Celsius amid moderate humidity and minimal cloud cover. Recent model consensus has narrowed uncertainty around this threshold, though slight variations in dew point or wind could shift the outcome toward 16°C or 18°C. Key resolution depends on official observational data through the night, with traders monitoring any late adjustments in guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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