Recent high-pressure dominance over northern Italy has produced clear skies, light easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover across the Po Valley, favoring strong daytime heating and pushing Milan’s September 4 maximum toward 32–34 °C according to the latest model consensus. Official forecasts from sources aligned with ECMWF and GFS runs indicate afternoon peaks near 33 °C under sunny conditions, with dew points in the mid-teens supporting efficient surface warming but limited extreme heat. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 48.5 % implied probability for 32 °C and 37.5 % for 33 °C, aligns with this narrow range while assigning low odds to 34 °C or higher, consistent with historical early-September maxima around 30–32 °C and the absence of stronger southerly flow or heat advection. Final resolution will hinge on the highest instantaneous reading from the official Milan station before midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on September 4?
Highest temperature in Milan on September 4?
32°C 47%
33°C 38%
31°C 12%
34°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
12%
32°C
47%
33°C
38%
34°C
5%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 47%
33°C 38%
31°C 12%
34°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
27°C or below
$204 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$245 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$426 Vol.
1%
30°C
$347 Vol.
1%
31°C
$1,239 Vol.
12%
32°C
$1,610 Vol.
47%
33°C
$770 Vol.
38%
34°C
$561 Vol.
5%
35°C
$161 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$107 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$527 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure dominance over northern Italy has produced clear skies, light easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover across the Po Valley, favoring strong daytime heating and pushing Milan’s September 4 maximum toward 32–34 °C according to the latest model consensus. Official forecasts from sources aligned with ECMWF and GFS runs indicate afternoon peaks near 33 °C under sunny conditions, with dew points in the mid-teens supporting efficient surface warming but limited extreme heat. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 48.5 % implied probability for 32 °C and 37.5 % for 33 °C, aligns with this narrow range while assigning low odds to 34 °C or higher, consistent with historical early-September maxima around 30–32 °C and the absence of stronger southerly flow or heat advection. Final resolution will hinge on the highest instantaneous reading from the official Milan station before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$6,198End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure dominance over northern Italy has produced clear skies, light easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover across the Po Valley, favoring strong daytime heating and pushing Milan’s September 4 maximum toward 32–34 °C according to the latest model consensus. Official forecasts from sources aligned with ECMWF and GFS runs indicate afternoon peaks near 33 °C under sunny conditions, with dew points in the mid-teens supporting efficient surface warming but limited extreme heat. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 48.5 % implied probability for 32 °C and 37.5 % for 33 °C, aligns with this narrow range while assigning low odds to 34 °C or higher, consistent with historical early-September maxima around 30–32 °C and the absence of stronger southerly flow or heat advection. Final resolution will hinge on the highest instantaneous reading from the official Milan station before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,198End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent high-pressure dominance over northern Italy has produced clear skies, light easterly winds, and minimal cloud cover across the Po Valley, favoring strong daytime heating and pushing Milan’s September 4 maximum toward 32–34 °C according to the latest model consensus. Official forecasts from sources aligned with ECMWF and GFS runs indicate afternoon peaks near 33 °C under sunny conditions, with dew points in the mid-teens supporting efficient surface warming but limited extreme heat. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 48.5 % implied probability for 32 °C and 37.5 % for 33 °C, aligns with this narrow range while assigning low odds to 34 °C or higher, consistent with historical early-September maxima around 30–32 °C and the absence of stronger southerly flow or heat advection. Final resolution will hinge on the highest instantaneous reading from the official Milan station before midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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