Persistent southwest monsoon flow, reinforced by nearby tropical storm activity, drives widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall over Manila on September 4, suppressing maximum temperatures through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. Official and ensemble forecasts from sources including PAGASA-influenced models and global systems consistently indicate highs of 28–29 °C under these conditions, with dew points near 24–25 °C and sustained southwesterly winds. Market-implied odds favoring 30–31 °C likely reflect residual uncertainty in rainfall timing and intensity, as brief clearer intervals could allow modest warming toward climatological September averages near 31 °C. Updated model runs and real-time observations from the National Capital Region will refine resolution thresholds ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 4?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 4?
31°C 40%
30°C 35%
29°C 12%
32°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
3%
28°C
3%
29°C
12%
30°C
35%
31°C
40%
32°C
10%
33°C or higher
3%
31°C 40%
30°C 35%
29°C 12%
32°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
23°C or below
$107 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$297 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$358 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$173 Vol.
2%
27°C
$241 Vol.
3%
28°C
$98 Vol.
3%
29°C
$616 Vol.
12%
30°C
$147 Vol.
35%
31°C
$952 Vol.
40%
32°C
$342 Vol.
10%
33°C or higher
$151 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow, reinforced by nearby tropical storm activity, drives widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall over Manila on September 4, suppressing maximum temperatures through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. Official and ensemble forecasts from sources including PAGASA-influenced models and global systems consistently indicate highs of 28–29 °C under these conditions, with dew points near 24–25 °C and sustained southwesterly winds. Market-implied odds favoring 30–31 °C likely reflect residual uncertainty in rainfall timing and intensity, as brief clearer intervals could allow modest warming toward climatological September averages near 31 °C. Updated model runs and real-time observations from the National Capital Region will refine resolution thresholds ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$3,480End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon flow, reinforced by nearby tropical storm activity, drives widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall over Manila on September 4, suppressing maximum temperatures through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. Official and ensemble forecasts from sources including PAGASA-influenced models and global systems consistently indicate highs of 28–29 °C under these conditions, with dew points near 24–25 °C and sustained southwesterly winds. Market-implied odds favoring 30–31 °C likely reflect residual uncertainty in rainfall timing and intensity, as brief clearer intervals could allow modest warming toward climatological September averages near 31 °C. Updated model runs and real-time observations from the National Capital Region will refine resolution thresholds ahead of market close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,480End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon flow, reinforced by nearby tropical storm activity, drives widespread cloud cover, thunderstorms, and heavy rainfall over Manila on September 4, suppressing maximum temperatures through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. Official and ensemble forecasts from sources including PAGASA-influenced models and global systems consistently indicate highs of 28–29 °C under these conditions, with dew points near 24–25 °C and sustained southwesterly winds. Market-implied odds favoring 30–31 °C likely reflect residual uncertainty in rainfall timing and intensity, as brief clearer intervals could allow modest warming toward climatological September averages near 31 °C. Updated model runs and real-time observations from the National Capital Region will refine resolution thresholds ahead of market close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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