**Latest high-resolution forecast models and AEMET guidance point to a peak temperature of 38–39 °C on September 4 under clear skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover, positioning 39 °C as the leading market outcome at 58.5 % implied probability.** This reflects an ongoing late-summer heat episode several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of ~29 °C, with official alerts already issued for maxima near 38 °C and tropical nights. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, though small shifts in timing or local effects could still allow 40 °C (26.5 %). The market’s heavy weighting toward 38–40 °C aggregates trader assessments of model consensus ahead of tomorrow’s official observation, which will resolve the contract.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 4?
39°C 59%
40°C 27%
38°C 14%
37°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
2%
38°C
14%
39°C
59%
40°C
27%
41°C
<1%
42°C
1%
43°C or higher
<1%
39°C 59%
40°C 27%
38°C 14%
37°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
33°C or below
$351 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$194 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$491 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$463 Vol.
1%
37°C
$555 Vol.
2%
38°C
$3,720 Vol.
14%
39°C
$1,773 Vol.
59%
40°C
$1,188 Vol.
27%
41°C
$167 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$273 Vol.
1%
43°C or higher
$238 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest high-resolution forecast models and AEMET guidance point to a peak temperature of 38–39 °C on September 4 under clear skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover, positioning 39 °C as the leading market outcome at 58.5 % implied probability.**
This reflects an ongoing late-summer heat episode several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of ~29 °C, with official alerts already issued for maxima near 38 °C and tropical nights. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, though small shifts in timing or local effects could still allow 40 °C (26.5 %). The market’s heavy weighting toward 38–40 °C aggregates trader assessments of model consensus ahead of tomorrow’s official observation, which will resolve the contract.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,413End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Latest high-resolution forecast models and AEMET guidance point to a peak temperature of 38–39 °C on September 4 under clear skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover, positioning 39 °C as the leading market outcome at 58.5 % implied probability.**
This reflects an ongoing late-summer heat episode several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of ~29 °C, with official alerts already issued for maxima near 38 °C and tropical nights. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, though small shifts in timing or local effects could still allow 40 °C (26.5 %). The market’s heavy weighting toward 38–40 °C aggregates trader assessments of model consensus ahead of tomorrow’s official observation, which will resolve the contract.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,413End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Latest high-resolution forecast models and AEMET guidance point to a peak temperature of 38–39 °C on September 4 under clear skies, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover, positioning 39 °C as the leading market outcome at 58.5 % implied probability.** This reflects an ongoing late-summer heat episode several degrees above the 1991–2020 average high of ~29 °C, with official alerts already issued for maxima near 38 °C and tropical nights. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around these values, though small shifts in timing or local effects could still allow 40 °C (26.5 %). The market’s heavy weighting toward 38–40 °C aggregates trader assessments of model consensus ahead of tomorrow’s official observation, which will resolve the contract.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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