Forecast models from agencies like the Spanish meteorological service and international sources indicate clear skies, light southerly to southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover over Madrid on September 3, supporting a daytime maximum near 37–38°C amid typical late-summer high-pressure conditions. This consensus, with limited model spread and no incoming frontal systems or moisture to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability for 38°C as the daily high. Historical September baselines around 27–30°C highlight the current anomaly driven by persistent anticyclonic patterns, while hourly observations through midday show steady warming toward peak afternoon values without exceeding early 38°C thresholds in most runs. Upcoming afternoon verification data from official stations will resolve the exact figure within the narrow 37–39°C range favored by traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 3?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 3?
38°C 74%
37°C 16%
39°C 12%
40°C 1.0%
$22,473 Vol.
$22,473 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
33°C or below
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
16%
38°C
74%
39°C
12%
40°C
1%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C or higher
<1%
38°C 74%
37°C 16%
39°C 12%
40°C 1.0%
$22,473 Vol.
$22,473 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
33°C or below
$192 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$224 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,613 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$1,864 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$6,951 Vol.
16%
38°C
$4,694 Vol.
74%
39°C
$4,094 Vol.
12%
40°C
$1,150 Vol.
1%
41°C
$808 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$577 Vol.
<1%
43°C or higher
$306 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the Spanish meteorological service and international sources indicate clear skies, light southerly to southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover over Madrid on September 3, supporting a daytime maximum near 37–38°C amid typical late-summer high-pressure conditions. This consensus, with limited model spread and no incoming frontal systems or moisture to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability for 38°C as the daily high. Historical September baselines around 27–30°C highlight the current anomaly driven by persistent anticyclonic patterns, while hourly observations through midday show steady warming toward peak afternoon values without exceeding early 38°C thresholds in most runs. Upcoming afternoon verification data from official stations will resolve the exact figure within the narrow 37–39°C range favored by traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$22,473End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like the Spanish meteorological service and international sources indicate clear skies, light southerly to southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover over Madrid on September 3, supporting a daytime maximum near 37–38°C amid typical late-summer high-pressure conditions. This consensus, with limited model spread and no incoming frontal systems or moisture to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability for 38°C as the daily high. Historical September baselines around 27–30°C highlight the current anomaly driven by persistent anticyclonic patterns, while hourly observations through midday show steady warming toward peak afternoon values without exceeding early 38°C thresholds in most runs. Upcoming afternoon verification data from official stations will resolve the exact figure within the narrow 37–39°C range favored by traders.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,473End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like the Spanish meteorological service and international sources indicate clear skies, light southerly to southwesterly winds, and minimal cloud cover over Madrid on September 3, supporting a daytime maximum near 37–38°C amid typical late-summer high-pressure conditions. This consensus, with limited model spread and no incoming frontal systems or moisture to moderate temperatures, underpins the market-implied 74.5% probability for 38°C as the daily high. Historical September baselines around 27–30°C highlight the current anomaly driven by persistent anticyclonic patterns, while hourly observations through midday show steady warming toward peak afternoon values without exceeding early 38°C thresholds in most runs. Upcoming afternoon verification data from official stations will resolve the exact figure within the narrow 37–39°C range favored by traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions