Recent forecast models from sources including the Turkish Meteorological Service and international ensembles indicate a peak temperature for Istanbul on September 4 in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius, driven by a stable high-pressure system, northeasterly winds at 10-25 km/h, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. Historical September averages near 24°C, combined with current surface observations around 27-28°C on September 3 and minimal precipitation risk, position 26°C and 27°C as the leading market outcomes at 56% and 28% implied probability. Minor model spread on exact maximum and potential microclimate effects at official stations introduce the modest uncertainty reflected in trader consensus. Updated model runs tomorrow morning represent the next key data point.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 4?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 4?
26°C 56%
27°C 28%
25°C 13%
28°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
22°C or below
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
2%
25°C
13%
26°C
56%
27°C
28%
28°C
4%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 56%
27°C 28%
25°C 13%
28°C 4%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
22°C or below
$95 Vol.
1%
23°C
$190 Vol.
1%
24°C
$170 Vol.
2%
25°C
$589 Vol.
13%
26°C
$610 Vol.
56%
27°C
$590 Vol.
28%
28°C
$95 Vol.
4%
29°C
$198 Vol.
1%
30°C
$10 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Turkish Meteorological Service and international ensembles indicate a peak temperature for Istanbul on September 4 in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius, driven by a stable high-pressure system, northeasterly winds at 10-25 km/h, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. Historical September averages near 24°C, combined with current surface observations around 27-28°C on September 3 and minimal precipitation risk, position 26°C and 27°C as the leading market outcomes at 56% and 28% implied probability. Minor model spread on exact maximum and potential microclimate effects at official stations introduce the modest uncertainty reflected in trader consensus. Updated model runs tomorrow morning represent the next key data point.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$2,593End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources including the Turkish Meteorological Service and international ensembles indicate a peak temperature for Istanbul on September 4 in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius, driven by a stable high-pressure system, northeasterly winds at 10-25 km/h, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. Historical September averages near 24°C, combined with current surface observations around 27-28°C on September 3 and minimal precipitation risk, position 26°C and 27°C as the leading market outcomes at 56% and 28% implied probability. Minor model spread on exact maximum and potential microclimate effects at official stations introduce the modest uncertainty reflected in trader consensus. Updated model runs tomorrow morning represent the next key data point.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,593End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources including the Turkish Meteorological Service and international ensembles indicate a peak temperature for Istanbul on September 4 in the mid- to upper-20s Celsius, driven by a stable high-pressure system, northeasterly winds at 10-25 km/h, and clear to partly cloudy skies that limit daytime heating. Historical September averages near 24°C, combined with current surface observations around 27-28°C on September 3 and minimal precipitation risk, position 26°C and 27°C as the leading market outcomes at 56% and 28% implied probability. Minor model spread on exact maximum and potential microclimate effects at official stations introduce the modest uncertainty reflected in trader consensus. Updated model runs tomorrow morning represent the next key data point.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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