Current forecasts for Istanbul on September 4 show overnight lows clustered near 21–22°C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high pressure near 1015–1017 hPa, with no precipitation expected. This setup limits radiative cooling while the urban heat island and proximity to the Sea of Marmara moderate temperatures above the September climatological minimum of 17°C. Model consensus across sources supports this range, yet small divergences arise from variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, which can shift the observed low by 1–2°C. The tightly matched market odds reflect this genuine uncertainty in the final minimum reading before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 4?
26°C or higher 100%
16°C or below 99%
18°C 98%
24°C 98%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
16°C or below
99%
17°C
96%
18°C
98%
19°C
96%
20°C
96%
21°C
95%
22°C
51%
23°C
95%
24°C
98%
25°C
94%
26°C or higher
100%
26°C or higher 100%
16°C or below 99%
18°C 98%
24°C 98%
NEW
NEW
Sep 4, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
99%
17°C
$0 Vol.
96%
18°C
$0 Vol.
98%
19°C
$0 Vol.
96%
20°C
$0 Vol.
96%
21°C
$0 Vol.
95%
22°C
$0 Vol.
51%
23°C
$0 Vol.
95%
24°C
$0 Vol.
98%
25°C
$0 Vol.
94%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts for Istanbul on September 4 show overnight lows clustered near 21–22°C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high pressure near 1015–1017 hPa, with no precipitation expected. This setup limits radiative cooling while the urban heat island and proximity to the Sea of Marmara moderate temperatures above the September climatological minimum of 17°C. Model consensus across sources supports this range, yet small divergences arise from variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, which can shift the observed low by 1–2°C. The tightly matched market odds reflect this genuine uncertainty in the final minimum reading before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts for Istanbul on September 4 show overnight lows clustered near 21–22°C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high pressure near 1015–1017 hPa, with no precipitation expected. This setup limits radiative cooling while the urban heat island and proximity to the Sea of Marmara moderate temperatures above the September climatological minimum of 17°C. Model consensus across sources supports this range, yet small divergences arise from variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, which can shift the observed low by 1–2°C. The tightly matched market odds reflect this genuine uncertainty in the final minimum reading before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts for Istanbul on September 4 show overnight lows clustered near 21–22°C under clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high pressure near 1015–1017 hPa, with no precipitation expected. This setup limits radiative cooling while the urban heat island and proximity to the Sea of Marmara moderate temperatures above the September climatological minimum of 17°C. Model consensus across sources supports this range, yet small divergences arise from variations in boundary-layer mixing and exact wind speeds, which can shift the observed low by 1–2°C. The tightly matched market odds reflect this genuine uncertainty in the final minimum reading before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions